Premier League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d58d496b323e162a84e9c6302a4f1a6a4dc6720ab14847558426865692aed54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 27c | 11,916$3,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,247.93 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 5,194$3,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.77 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 73c | 3,075$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.03 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 26c | 1,249$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.84 | 113 | 24.8%28 W · 85 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 74c | 1,137$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.61 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 70c | 968$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.4 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 73c | 800$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 73c | 699.99$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fd…6c23backed Over | 23c | 660$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 72c | 615$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 27c | 534.28$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 222 | 29.3%65 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 28c | 504.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bf…2c66backed Over | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 28c | 396.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…fde6backed Over | 28c | 355.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…2427backed Over | 27c | 326.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 72c | 316.68$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 313.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 76c | 238.16$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Over | 27c | 218.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a50…6c6bbacked Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 26c | 173.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Over | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -7.0wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -60%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 26c | 150.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…6a80backed Under | 74c | 140$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 71c | 136.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 30c | 128.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Under | 75c | 119.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 72c | 117.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 369 | 56.9%210 W · 159 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…17ebbacked Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 24c | 96.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 21c | 95.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | -13.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…1379backed Over | 29c | 89.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…6d9dbacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 75c | 60.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 209 | 31.6%66 W · 143 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 67c | 57.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…d960backed Under | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 72c | 51.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f23abacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 71c | 44.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 240 | 62.5%150 W · 90 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 27c | 38.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420a…7d5cbacked Under | 74c | 37.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.