Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HNK Hajduk Split vs. Páfos FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e7a951dcee35a6304555ebbf6e9e472a271e2fcd4fe5ac95ba3a179bb64bbbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 4,448$3,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.29 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 74c | 4,119$3,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.16 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 3,789$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.64 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 29c | 2,968$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.79 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 28c | 2,639$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.92 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 30c | 1,435$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.4 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 30c | 1,435$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.4 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 1,091$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.65 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 21c | 1,025$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.07 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7391…5375backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 4c | 796.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…a8abbacked Yes | 40c | 624.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 65c | 598.8$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.8 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 505.24$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…b038backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 62c | 478.16$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.05 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 70c | 422.6$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.78 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 71c | 402$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…2909backed Yes | 29c | 345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 78c | 259.71$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 68c | 181.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…92ffbacked No | 69c | 175$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…8e75backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 27c | 147.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed Yes | 20c | 144.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 71c | 131$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 126.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed No | 71c | 125.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 36c | 122.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 41c | 118.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 67c | 111.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…54f2backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…c103backed Yes | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 71c | 103.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Yes | 17c | 102.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 60c | 101.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9288…4678backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 58c | 99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed No | 60c | 79.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…7f05backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…1f7bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed Yes | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Yes | 28c | 57.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…3bb8backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…7fd8backed Yes | 30c | 49.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed No | 58c | 49.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd6…ae8ebacked Yes | 28c | 48.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 39c | 47.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 70c | 39.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed No | 77c | 35.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 71c | 20.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNK Hajduk Split vs. Páfos FC end in a draw?this page
- Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-07-23?Yes won
- Will Páfos FC win on 2026-07-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.