TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$159,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$178,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,049 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora52c51,448$26,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,900.1433746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Team Falcons47c12,313$5,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,798.313455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Aurora49c11,836$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,986.4427645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x806d…f8c7backed Team Falcons2c11,552$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.52560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Team Falcons50c10,308$5,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,204.6518452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Falcons51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10020159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Team Falcons50c8,779$4,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,363.653644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora49c6,000$2,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.9989440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team Falcons48c5,753$2,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,761.6525549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Falcons52c5,230$2,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6969557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Team Falcons48c5,202$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.922755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Falcons48c5,147$2,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,470.5616248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Aurora49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55019943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Falcons50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora51c3,503$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.4854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Aurora50c3,159$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.484146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Aurora50c3,015$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.477149.3%35 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Team Falcons48c2,867$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37611955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4946…89d0backed Aurora65c2,831$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.454967.3%33 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Falcons48c2,318$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.6419147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Team Falcons49c2,285$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.158253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Aurora50c2,086$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.631050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Aurora49c2,046$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.4611253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…692bbacked Team Falcons50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc6d…f406backed Team Falcons50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons45c1,835$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.221,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Team Falcons47c1,517$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.6610741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Aurora52c1,346$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.1523746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons48c1,180$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.7880742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons23c1,079$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.621,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Team Falcons48c1,050$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5049345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Team Falcons26c1,018$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.316821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Aurora74c1,000$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Falcons50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Falcons50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Aurora54c997$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.5866662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked Team Falcons49c994$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.065251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Aurora54c919.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.918957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons49c859.38$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.133850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Falcons46c839$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.2130138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Aurora50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4005565.5%36 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Team Falcons36c713.34$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.378328.9%24 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2da2…8c2bbacked Team Falcons49c685.79$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.0410966.1%72 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb15f…7deebacked Team Falcons51c673.48$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.85552.7%29 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora66c670.85$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.222,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Team Falcons50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa850…f1babacked Team Falcons49c598$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Team Falcons51c586.27$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29941248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39b8…5072backed Team Falcons49c565.02$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed Team Falcons16c562.42$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.367143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c36…8d72backed Aurora51c554.9$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Aurora50c540$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2704055%22 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b47…25d3backed Team Falcons25c539$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.756334.9%22 W · 41 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora50c518.4$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.257455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1a…89e5backed Team Falcons48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x810c…d96dbacked Team Falcons49c481.63$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a80…c1dfbacked Aurora52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4421…1dd3backed Team Falcons49c469$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fb…3e92backed Aurora76c446.89$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.893167.7%21 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe81c…a724backed Team Falcons48c431.67$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2064763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Aurora50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002556%14 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed Team Falcons51c399.78$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.897147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9b…71f8backed Team Falcons50c391.22$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.611050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Aurora50c387.09$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.183450%17 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Team Falcons52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Aurora67c380$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.865280.8%42 W · 10 L+8.6wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x636a…18fdbacked Aurora52c377$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.621668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+52%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Falcons49c358.47$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6529245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb82d…c40dbacked Aurora50c353.91$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.965949.2%29 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…1e61backed Aurora78c344.87$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Aurora50c338.16$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Team Falcons50c302.98$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2622945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Aurora71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874949%24 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Team Falcons46c295.29$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13520350.7%103 W · 100 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x883b…ca19backed Aurora50c278$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7484…de96backed Aurora65c277.44$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.089651%49 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Team Falcons32c252$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.425549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Aurora53c226.42$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4215131.8%48 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f28…1edebacked Team Falcons49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010456.7%59 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Team Falcons24c202$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.489145.1%41 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Aurora49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10214259.9%85 W · 57 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Aurora50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10087645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8d…31e4backed Team Falcons50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Team Falcons50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Aurora49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10273743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fea…9bdbbacked Aurora50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Aurora50c199.97$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9897142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Falcons51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora69c195.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.081,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Falcons29c193.47$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1134154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons46c187.49$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.852,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x910a…9e92backed Aurora68c183.86$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.62045%9 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b05…b133backed Team Falcons28c180.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011254.5%61 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9634…bd44backed Team Falcons33c176.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.581346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f52…a3c3backed Team Falcons51c175.34$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…c767backed Team Falcons14c170$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf44…0bbdbacked Team Falcons18c156.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.953351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Team Falcons32c153.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.589145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Team Falcons12c152.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9312720.5%26 W · 101 L-22.6wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.9%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.