TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,471 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora51c24,929$12,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,285.0955157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons52c21,082$10,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,932.7542650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora48c14,522$6,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,551.4133746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Team Falcons52c7,000$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,639.9910445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora49c5,723$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.4613455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed Team Falcons47c5,319$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.993040%12 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora53c4,889$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,288.7654556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Falcons46c4,367$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.8196557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons44c4,244$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.911,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Team Falcons48c3,890$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.976445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked Team Falcons51c3,638$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.388544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Aurora48c2,700$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4048543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed Aurora48c2,429$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.352828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed Team Falcons38c2,397$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.287143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Team Falcons52c2,246$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.9112948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Aurora61c2,095$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.9734468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Aurora48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3311359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons56c2,048$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.3379959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Falcons55c1,744$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.3953844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora55c1,317$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.192,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Falcons44c1,197$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.8171454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Aurora57c1,170$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.1816160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Team Falcons54c1,147$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.9810741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Team Falcons17c1,004$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2413732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Team Falcons50c961.81$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.0154445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora48c881.54$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.4585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons50c859.49$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.641,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Aurora53c837.19$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.4823746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Aurora54c830.75$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.2510334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Aurora52c789.98$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.694949%24 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora51c700$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34329047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora49c647.25$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.2356848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons29c632.2$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0566662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Team Falcons48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Aurora48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31215452.6%81 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora76c600$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9645061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Aurora52c589.97$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.1936054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora54c548.79$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.321,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Aurora74c536.13$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.819664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Falcons48c524.56$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25055251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Aurora50c515.24$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.6262650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed Team Falcons52c513.4$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.469254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26059250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Aurora80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10021264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed Team Falcons51c499.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.995446.3%25 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons48c471.34$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.241,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Aurora44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5514538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb0…8ababacked Aurora53c439.49$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.493638.9%14 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Aurora56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17688166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Team Falcons52c382.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58c9…e194backed Team Falcons52c353.85$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1844035%14 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Falcons50c339.14$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.5729548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Aurora49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.128854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked Team Falcons27c300$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd99e…8102backed Team Falcons40c299.97$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.995024%12 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons47c270$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.980742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Aurora77c260$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.812061.7%74 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b31…1306backed Team Falcons12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Falcons47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.561548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x772c…3539backed Aurora53c235.85$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.855543.6%24 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5907…56c5backed Aurora44c225$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Team Falcons54c222.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12052649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked Aurora54c211.64$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.468750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.338461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11ff…4447backed Team Falcons46c205.76$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6522534.2%77 W · 148 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Falcons47c199.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9434154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora52c191.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1159556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Falcons47c179.14$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1948352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Team Falcons26c160$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1116821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa257…ea6ebacked Team Falcons47c159.66$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.041361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora55c156.36$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3672154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora42c155.39$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1392056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Aurora50c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.61,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b0…6960backed Team Falcons50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708055%44 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed Team Falcons48c132$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3627548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons35c130.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.152,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Falcons45c119.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7564744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…03cbbacked Team Falcons49c102.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509137.4%34 W · 57 L-8.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x912e…0eaebacked Team Falcons57c101.05$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.67424.3%18 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5058152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Aurora74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2618952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Aurora49c98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5847951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc6e…d043backed Team Falcons52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501560%9 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ba…9fecbacked Aurora52c95.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7910546.7%49 W · 56 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Aurora53c94.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5455457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Aurora49c93.14$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.597142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a8…2a71backed Team Falcons48c85.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed Aurora53c79.53$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3813946%64 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be4…06c2backed Team Falcons23c74.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb759…ed73backed Aurora49c71.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4310049%49 W · 51 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1963…8122backed Aurora53c71.16$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.159548.4%46 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Team Falcons51c70.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.995552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22f5…795bbacked Aurora48c64.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.586160.7%37 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdff2…c7c9backed Aurora48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.53070%21 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d03…b8a6backed Team Falcons50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021465%139 W · 75 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed Team Falcons26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.824026.7%64 W · 176 L-30.5wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed Team Falcons53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.812449.2%61 W · 63 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f46…cddbbacked Aurora53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.624052.1%125 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora63c51.86$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0222654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde39…f3b5backed Aurora49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.33650%18 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.