Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe592d4bcfe71e907eda5f09ec6a5673dfde7675beae8c1d22a6477e2483b1642
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 51c | 24,929$12,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,285.09 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons | 52c | 21,082$10,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,932.75 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 48c | 14,522$6,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,551.41 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Team Falcons | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,639.99 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora | 49c | 5,723$2,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,926.46 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…dd00backed Team Falcons | 47c | 5,319$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.99 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 53c | 4,889$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.76 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Team Falcons | 46c | 4,367$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.81 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons | 44c | 4,244$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.91 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…0c20backed Team Falcons | 48c | 3,890$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.97 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c7…620cbacked Team Falcons | 51c | 3,638$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.38 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked Aurora | 48c | 2,700$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…06c4backed Aurora | 48c | 2,429$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.35 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…5f73backed Team Falcons | 38c | 2,397$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.28 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Team Falcons | 52c | 2,246$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.91 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Aurora | 61c | 2,095$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.97 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Aurora | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons | 56c | 2,048$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.33 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Team Falcons | 55c | 1,744$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.39 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 55c | 1,317$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.19 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Team Falcons | 44c | 1,197$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.81 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Aurora | 57c | 1,170$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.18 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…3de6backed Team Falcons | 54c | 1,147$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.98 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…e75fbacked Team Falcons | 17c | 1,004$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.24 | 137 | 32.8%45 W · 92 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Falcons | 50c | 961.81$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.01 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora | 48c | 881.54$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.45 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons | 50c | 859.49$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.64 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Aurora | 53c | 837.19$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.48 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Aurora | 54c | 830.75$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.25 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Aurora | 52c | 789.98$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.69 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora | 49c | 647.25$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.23 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons | 29c | 632.2$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.05 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Team Falcons | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Aurora | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora | 76c | 600$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.96 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Aurora | 52c | 589.97$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.19 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 54c | 548.79$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.32 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Aurora | 74c | 536.13$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Falcons | 48c | 524.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Aurora | 50c | 515.24$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.62 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed Team Falcons | 52c | 513.4$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.46 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Aurora | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…fc83backed Team Falcons | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 48c | 471.34$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.24 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Aurora | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb0…8ababacked Aurora | 53c | 439.49$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.49 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Team Falcons | 52c | 382.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…e194backed Team Falcons | 52c | 353.85$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Falcons | 50c | 339.14$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.57 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Aurora | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3260…85ddbacked Team Falcons | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd99e…8102backed Team Falcons | 40c | 299.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons | 47c | 270$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.9 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Aurora | 77c | 260$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b31…1306backed Team Falcons | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Team Falcons | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…3539backed Aurora | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5907…56c5backed Aurora | 44c | 225$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Team Falcons | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked Aurora | 54c | 211.64$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.46 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Team Falcons | 46c | 205.76$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Falcons | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora | 52c | 191.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Falcons | 47c | 179.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Team Falcons | 26c | 160$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa257…ea6ebacked Team Falcons | 47c | 159.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 55c | 156.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 42c | 155.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 50c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed Team Falcons | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Team Falcons | 48c | 132$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons | 35c | 130.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Team Falcons | 45c | 119.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…03cbbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 102.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Team Falcons | 57c | 101.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Aurora | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Aurora | 49c | 98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6e…d043backed Team Falcons | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…9fecbacked Aurora | 52c | 95.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Aurora | 53c | 94.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 49c | 93.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…2a71backed Team Falcons | 48c | 85.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Aurora | 53c | 79.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…06c2backed Team Falcons | 23c | 74.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…ed73backed Aurora | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Aurora | 53c | 71.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Team Falcons | 51c | 70.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f5…795bbacked Aurora | 48c | 64.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…c7c9backed Aurora | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Team Falcons | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Team Falcons | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Team Falcons | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked Aurora | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 240 | 52.1%125 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 63c | 51.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f3b5backed Aurora | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2Aurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.