Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc05ee1eee2ab78e00c5a0c4f034cc0a53cdad937a4179b6afdae788dc68e76c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 51c | 48,554$24,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,755.09 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons | 49c | 42,670$20,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,908.46 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 53c | 6,543$3,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,103.02 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Team Falcons | 49c | 6,500$3,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,184.99 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons | 37c | 6,010$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora | 51c | 5,615$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760.85 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…dd00backed Team Falcons | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 50c | 4,987$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,486.54 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Team Falcons | 48c | 4,115$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.09 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 42c | 3,152$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.38 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons | 36c | 2,872$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.81 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked Aurora | 49c | 2,752$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.49 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Team Falcons | 48c | 2,075$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c7…620cbacked Aurora | 54c | 1,860$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.04 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed Aurora | 53c | 1,437$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.22 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Team Falcons | 3c | 1,345$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 61c | 1,059$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.18 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…3de6backed Team Falcons | 47c | 972.65$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Aurora | 49c | 965$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…e75fbacked Team Falcons | 7c | 924.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 137 | 32.8%45 W · 92 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Falcons | 46c | 777$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.42 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Team Falcons | 45c | 771.91$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.3 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons | 32c | 679.91$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.08 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Aurora | 74c | 665.54$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.54 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…f1babacked Team Falcons | 48c | 641.52$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…3539backed Team Falcons | 42c | 616.7$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Team Falcons | 50c | 609.99$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.8 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Team Falcons | 49c | 597.7$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.87 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Aurora | 52c | 537.13$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.82 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 54c | 483.5$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.41 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Falcons | 39c | 481.57$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Aurora | 57c | 474.61$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.73 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora | 58c | 467.41$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.16 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 50c | 451$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Falcons | 13c | 450$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 73c | 444.34$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Aurora | 53c | 444.15$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.75 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Falcons | 46c | 435$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…e194backed Aurora | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Team Falcons | 6c | 399.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Aurora | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora | 66c | 370$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 360.52$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.85 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Team Falcons | 35c | 324.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Team Falcons | 49c | 315.9$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Team Falcons | 36c | 314.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa612…3397backed Aurora | 61c | 272.73$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora | 68c | 221.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora | 64c | 200.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3260…85ddbacked Aurora | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Aurora | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Team Falcons | 51c | 192.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Team Falcons | 38c | 191$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 66c | 185.94$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora | 54c | 182.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Team Falcons | 7c | 173.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99e…8102backed Team Falcons | 42c | 170$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Falcons | 49c | 169.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Team Falcons | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…9728backed Aurora | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Aurora | 79c | 126.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons | 49c | 108.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…b9c5backed Team Falcons | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Aurora | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Falcons | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Aurora | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…ed73backed Aurora | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Falcons | 51c | 97.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…9fecbacked Aurora | 52c | 95.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…5c25backed Team Falcons | 26c | 85.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4287…3d5ebacked Aurora | 51c | 81.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Team Falcons | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Team Falcons | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Aurora | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…5299backed Aurora | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Team Falcons | 32c | 74.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Team Falcons | 48c | 65.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 33c | 64.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f5…795bbacked Aurora | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Aurora | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Team Falcons | 47c | 57.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Aurora | 53c | 56.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…88d6backed Aurora | 61c | 49.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 187 | 69%129 W · 58 L | +20.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70da…68dbbacked Aurora | 54c | 45.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Aurora | 67c | 42.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…1a70backed Aurora | 50c | 41.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Aurora | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…6de8backed Team Falcons | 34c | 38.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…2814backed Aurora | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Team Falcons | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…c7c9backed Aurora | 53c | 30.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…2f2abacked Team Falcons | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 79c | 28.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…fc0ebacked Aurora | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2Aurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.