Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Auburn win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f79a38081954bae35a150dc3037bc6b5b43b7b8f4743255a6d54070bc200799
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 68c | 8,628$5,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,725.05 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 2,947$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.97 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 33c | 2,426$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 58c | 2,188$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.9 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 50c | 1,355$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.29 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 31c | 1,090$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.89 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 53c | 574.69$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.58 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 55c | 489.52$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 44c | 463.82$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.08 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 44c | 450.5$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.22 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 38c | 441.5$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…5ce5backed No | 51c | 350$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.95 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 64c | 238$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…5b14backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 195.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed No | 32c | 178.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 40cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83b8…743cbacked Yes | 46c | 99.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…d992backed No | 55c | 94.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe85…9cadbacked No | 46c | 93.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 91.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…98a6backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…4563backed No | 55c | 90.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4f…3463backed Yes | 56c | 87.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…1841backed Yes | 57c | 86.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982d…753abacked No | 55c | 86.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342f…e786backed Yes | 56c | 86.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7530…aac4backed Yes | 46c | 82.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0808…099cbacked No | 46c | 81.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080d…9874backed No | 46c | 81.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977f…a9bfbacked Yes | 46c | 77.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 45c | 75.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…ebb7backed No | 46c | 74.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fde…6defbacked No | 46c | 71.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5917…7c54backed Yes | 46c | 70.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…524cbacked No | 47c | 69.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0485…fb88backed Yes | 55c | 66.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…13d9backed No | 47c | 63.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…09c5backed No | 46c | 63.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7344…4da2backed Yes | 55c | 62.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…fb2cbacked Yes | 55c | 61.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…a5dbbacked No | 32c | 60.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 52c | 60.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…e13bbacked No | 47c | 56.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 50c | 55.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…5658backed Yes | 47c | 55.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bd…0f21backed Yes | 55c | 54.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…5ebfbacked Yes | 55c | 53.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…642abacked Yes | 47c | 52.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a0…3514backed Yes | 56c | 52.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba13…42f9backed Yes | 56c | 51.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2391…7ae3backed No | 47c | 51.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…41cabacked Yes | 56c | 47.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…8294backed No | 47c | 47.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc5…1c60backed Yes | 55c | 47.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe355…82efbacked No | 47c | 45.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1830…4932backed No | 47c | 42.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2e…dde1backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 39c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…6bf0backed No | 54c | 40.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…ff76backed No | 54c | 39.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…3095backed Yes | 55c | 36.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…e17cbacked Yes | 56c | 36.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 34.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…2584backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…06ddbacked No | 55c | 31.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68fb…7e9ebacked No | 55c | 31.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64b…c1d5backed No | 54c | 28.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…0ac7backed No | 55c | 24.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 52c | 24.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7372…0537backed Yes | 47c | 22.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfde…32d5backed Yes | 47c | 22.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…2266backed Yes | 47c | 21.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa5…d7e2backed Yes | 55c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…a272backed No | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb2…9ccebacked Yes | 56c | 19.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…1cb1backed Yes | 55c | 18.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Auburn win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?this page
- Will Alabama State win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Creighton win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Iowa State win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Louisville win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Marquette win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Michigan State win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Michigan win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Mississippi win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Saint Francis (PA) win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will San Diego State win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Texas A&M win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will UC San Diego win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.