Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Michigan State win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x540a8b6a413f70571ed1db32e927ed23df3f4091108ec5dbe87e53f65fc68e41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 33c | 3,031$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 67c | 2,857$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.75 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 68c | 2,083$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.65 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…c238backed No | 75c | 1,150$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 26c | 1,128$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.24 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 76c | 1,046$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes | 17c | 600.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 14c | 471.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 74c | 430.51$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…98a6backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 31c | 324.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 26c | 320$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5917…7c54backed Yes | 27c | 295.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 209$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 75c | 192.71$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 9c | 184.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 75c | 122.4$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 25c | 122.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed Yes | 21c | 115.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 100.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 16c | 100.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 93.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 88.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…0b99backed Yes | 50c | 29.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michigan State win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?this page
- Will Alabama State win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Auburn win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?Yes won
- Will Creighton win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Iowa State win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Louisville win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Marquette win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Michigan win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Mississippi win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Saint Francis (PA) win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will San Diego State win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Texas A&M win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will UC San Diego win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.