TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,612 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes74c558.48$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8145148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c513.11$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.945,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No10c386.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.062,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes18c382.77$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.0115131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c328.4$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.1310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c306.26$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.132,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c295.51$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes33c224.59$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.4741331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes36c221.17$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.11,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes34c218$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c209.79$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.324,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes36c203.88$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.2417144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes36c192.86$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.395,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes75c186.27$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.316,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes35c175.81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.0546240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed No67c175$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.037518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes34c170.05$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.531,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No42c169.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.221,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No14c162.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.814,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes32c160$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2831043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes20c156.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.67163.4%45 W · 26 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No65c151.19$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8380560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No44c143.04$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.628,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No61c141.07$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.722,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c138.2$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.045,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes34c138.18$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x186c…f982backed Yes62c136.3$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.173060%18 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No66c131.45$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8739968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No44c126.95$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.657,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbe21…2f9cbacked Yes34c126.88$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.51933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No64c123.3$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.972,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x644c…9b6abacked Yes33c122.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.031675%12 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+30.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes52c121.81$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.462,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No27c121.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.322,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes37c118.74$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.394940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes33c115.52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.486420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c111.21$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes35c108.74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.081,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c106.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes56c105.41$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0812934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5726540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes21c99.02$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.095543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes36c98.62$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.13740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c95.87$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No50c94.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.832,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No66c85$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.11,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9635…3d8cbacked No37c83.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No64c80.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.511,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes31c80.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6442643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes44c77.68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6834533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No60c74.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.732,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c74.18$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.864,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c72.25$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.493,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x553b…b5bebacked Yes70c62.27$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.681729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes34c60.59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.991,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No63c59.66$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.563,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c55.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.997,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No66c50.88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.581,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf722…4e1ebacked No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes33c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.517241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed Yes30c48.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9122853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52a…0a58backed No57c45.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.871154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick70cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No66c44.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.341760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes43c42.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.134652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed Yes36c41.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6725747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes29c41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.240535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes29c39.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9180130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes31c36.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.031,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…3405backed Yes31c36.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.04742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80db…4a73backed Yes34c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.954951%25 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No75c28.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No42c25.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.729262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No55c25.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.764,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No61c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2513351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No65c24.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8955855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No63c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.92,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c20.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1054656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb8d…0511backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No67c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.564960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c19.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.033,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd467…d7a8backed No76c18.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c18.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.623,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No67c16.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.261,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No72c16.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f33…da59backed No65c16.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.425658.9%33 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0515666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.