Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102adcb5092f2ae9bcb44b0e4fda1d4fb24180a9d9208c83a897af9c4ec1e9a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 74c | 558.48$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.81 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 513.11$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 10c | 386.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 18c | 382.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.01 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 328.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 306.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 295.51$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 33c | 224.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.47 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 36c | 221.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.1 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 34c | 218$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.88 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 209.79$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 36c | 203.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 192.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 75c | 186.27$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 175.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 67c | 175$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 170.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.53 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 42c | 169.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 162.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 32c | 160$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 20c | 156.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 151.19$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 44c | 143.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 141.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 138.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 34c | 138.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed Yes | 62c | 136.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 131.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 126.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…2f9cbacked Yes | 34c | 126.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 123.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…9b6abacked Yes | 33c | 122.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 121.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 27c | 121.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 37c | 118.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 33c | 115.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 111.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 108.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 106.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 56c | 105.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 21c | 99.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 36c | 98.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 95.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 50c | 94.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…3d8cbacked No | 37c | 83.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 80.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 31c | 80.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 44c | 77.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 74.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 74.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 72.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…b5bebacked Yes | 70c | 62.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 34c | 60.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 59.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 55.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 50.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 30c | 48.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…0a58backed No | 57c | 45.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 66c | 44.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes | 43c | 42.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 39.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 31c | 36.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…3405backed Yes | 31c | 36.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 28.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 25.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 25.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 65c | 24.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 20.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 19.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd467…d7a8backed No | 76c | 18.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 18.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 16.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 16.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 65c | 16.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.