Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a0e7d3e337413a6b821a6344498556cf71767b9b5bc17345c29598ef2888b89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 865.43$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.16 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 37c | 582.53$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.62 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 48c | 436.9$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.92 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 403$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 392.24$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 52c | 384$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.03 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 314.53$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…075ebacked Yes | 52c | 310.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ff…184ebacked Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 291.02$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 69c | 272.32$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.03 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 47c | 241.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.48 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 226.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 219.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 52c | 189.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 185.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 57c | 175.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 57c | 168.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 164.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 152.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 48c | 149.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 12c | 148.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 29c | 145.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 138.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 129.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 127.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 72c | 126$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 52c | 113.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 52c | 110.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 46c | 110.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 51c | 110.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 103.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 46c | 100.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 47c | 92.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 48c | 91.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 91.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…3d8cbacked Yes | 59c | 87.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 49c | 81.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…1352backed Yes | 73c | 81.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 79c | 77.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 76.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 75.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 72.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 68.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 35c | 67.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 55c | 65.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 51c | 64.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 64.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 45c | 61.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed No | 32c | 61.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 61.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 59.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 47c | 58.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 39c | 55.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 44c | 54.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 53.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 51.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 45c | 51.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 50c | 50.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 39c | 49.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 49.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 48.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 43c | 47.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 37c | 47.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 50c | 44.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…6c98backed Yes | 50c | 39.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 46c | 39.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 37c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 37.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 34c | 35.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 52c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 43c | 33.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 44c | 33.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 68c | 32.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 32.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…e113backed Yes | 67c | 31.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 54c | 30.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.