NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Wild: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x107d6a68b24c759d8850be50e187dd5ea9705882031968ee4e2ce51ff3aab0d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,990 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43b6…9a9bbacked Under | 53c | 13,208$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,207.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Over | 47c | 5,401$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.66 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 5,293$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.11 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772e…c442backed Under | 54c | 3,812$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 2,773$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.38 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 47c | 2,650$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.5 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 48c | 2,048$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.82 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 55c | 2,038$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.49 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 47c | 1,589$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.99 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 1,457$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.65 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 14c | 1,435$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.51 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 1,086$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.13 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 45c | 1,059$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.74 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 761$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.06 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 45c | 632.74$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.54 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 613.8$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.84 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Under | 53c | 599.99$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.99 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Over | 47c | 463.53$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf906…b98ebacked Under | 40c | 448.38$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Over | 47c | 437.42$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.63 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 63c | 332.51$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.52 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Under | 53c | 228.4$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 47c | 212.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…3953backed Under | 53c | 210.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 36c | 172.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 65c | 157.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 49c | 155.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…681ebacked Under | 65c | 144.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Over | 42c | 132.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 68c | 126.82$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 33c | 115.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 108.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Over | 47c | 89.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 34c | 87.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 65c | 83.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 31c | 79.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…71cebacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Under | 54c | 69.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Over | 52c | 65.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 48c | 64.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Over | 47c | 52.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 66c | 42.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 50c | 39.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 69c | 37.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Under | 67c | 35.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Over | 47c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 68c | 29.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed Under | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…7d23backed Under | 54c | 24.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Over | 59c | 18.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ab…2f5abacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Wild: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. WildMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Wild: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.