Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10b13471b107abb224e0d86ffe478bfa487f31428a47927da5fa3743570c3a7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 1,450$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 718.76$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.03 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 15c | 646.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.87 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 28c | 538.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.13 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 25c | 512.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.37 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 477.78$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 428.62$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 417.78$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.72 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 417.03$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.93 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 385$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 329.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 318$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 259$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.53 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 25c | 258.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 254.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 79c | 252.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 231.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 43c | 202.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 34c | 201.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 73c | 190.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.18 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 166$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 43c | 165.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 140.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 137.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 136.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 129.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 124.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 70c | 118.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 14c | 115.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 21c | 110.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 75c | 95.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 94.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 19c | 93.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 93.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 83.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 82.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 73c | 82.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 78.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 61c | 73.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…a080backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 66.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 65.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 64.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 63.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 54c | 62.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 59.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 53.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 79c | 50.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 50.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cf…cdd1backed No | 65c | 48.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 51c | 47.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 40.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 78c | 39.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 40c | 37.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 78c | 36.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 35.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 59c | 34.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked No | 61c | 32.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 31.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 28.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 26.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 43c | 25.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…5209backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 61c | 23.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 58c | 22.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 22.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed Yes | 68c | 19.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 79c | 19.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.