TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes22c1,450$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes51c718.76$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.034,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes15c646.66$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.8772042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes28c538.13$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.1331943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…5668backed Yes25c512.49$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.379617.7%17 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No54c477.78$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.614,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No52c428.62$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.663,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No74c417.78$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.721,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No50c417.03$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.932,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No72c385$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.134,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes14c329.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.669,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No51c318$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.664,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No74c259$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.531,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2acb…faeebacked No25c258.3$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.751275%9 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes13c254.52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.478,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No79c252.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.591,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes24c231.66$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.6912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes43c202.83$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.81,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes34c201.56$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No73c190.29$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1842762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c166$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.845,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes43c165.44$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.624046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes44c140.14$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.232,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No10c137.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.587,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No10c136.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes21c129.52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.3267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c124.92$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed Yes70c118.52$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9419757.4%113 W · 84 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes14c115.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.181,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes21c110.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.023,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No75c95.74$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No76c94.22$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.421,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes19c93.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.041,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c93.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.069,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes17c83.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2972624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No80c82.89$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.293,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No73c82.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0742547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No50c78.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.766,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes61c73.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1770741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…a080backed Yes27c70$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.21450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No80c66.48$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.891,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes20c65.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.23,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes55c64.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.936,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No51c63.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.261,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No79c63.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No54c62.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4571057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes17c60$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.820838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No71c59.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.792,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No64c53.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.212,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc3e…cefdbacked No79c50.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405667.9%38 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No78c50.54$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.492,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19cf…cdd1backed No65c48.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes51c47.37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2323241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No49c40.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8543441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes78c39.91$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.862,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbf…d779backed Yes40c37.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.878748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No78c36.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7933654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No50c35.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.932,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf75…005cbacked No59c34.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44755.3%26 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb344…31eabacked No61c32.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+69.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.364,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No60c31.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.882,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed Yes41c29.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.715841.8%66 W · 92 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No56c28.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0579947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No60c26.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.112,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes43c25.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3915040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34e…5209backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No77c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.351,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes61c23.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.062,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes58c22.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.411,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No71c22.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.681,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x500e…53c7backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No60c19.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9991861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6041…b027backed Yes68c19.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.333060%18 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No77c19.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.228360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No79c19.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0316566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No79c18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.223,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.