Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3afbd82389268083f6694d6d82f7cc8997fdbc758a71690885646a1bc0e70acc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 35c | 1,841$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.49 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 930.92$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 7c | 884.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 651.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 348.1$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 307.11$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 287.12$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 28c | 234.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 233.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 217.06$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 19c | 213.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 201.23$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 200.35$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 184$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 177.35$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 29c | 153.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 131.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 131$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 123.68$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 110.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea3…a31dbacked No | 69c | 110.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 104.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 103.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…2df7backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 93.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 92.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 28c | 91.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 89.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 86.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 82.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 26c | 76.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 66c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…835ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 71.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 71.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 32c | 70.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 66.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 62.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 21c | 61.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 58.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 39c | 57.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d50…e29fbacked No | 76c | 55.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 31c | 47.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 27c | 45.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 41.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 30c | 38.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 38.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 33c | 36.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 37c | 34.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 31.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e8…c691backed Yes | 34c | 31.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +167.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 31.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 63c | 24.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 22.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 72c | 21.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…a1f1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…28f8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.