Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09fdaef624b2ee9a69ae61d812e38d7b291bc10027ef1880bd210d8f152d48f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 2,451$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,076$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.97 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 76c | 657.37$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.37 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 372.06$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 360.93$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 339.52$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…d113backed No | 78c | 322.16$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 61c | 309.71$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 45c | 304.22$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 50c | 296.89$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.77 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 264.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 263$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.56 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 48c | 231.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 230.84$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 227.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 216.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 57c | 198.15$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 38c | 197.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 53c | 192.29$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 192$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 38c | 178.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 177.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 59c | 170.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed Yes | 69c | 159$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked No | 68c | 145.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 43c | 138.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 52c | 133.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 132.84$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 132.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 124$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 42c | 123.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 120.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 47c | 119.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 118$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…8c45backed Yes | 41c | 112.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 55c | 104.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 42c | 102.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 48c | 94.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 45c | 91.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 25c | 90.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 88.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 52c | 86.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 82.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 71c | 81.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 71c | 80.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 50c | 74.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 73.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 72.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 45c | 72.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 71.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 68.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 66.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 52c | 66.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 63.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9a…541fbacked Yes | 41c | 62.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 62.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 58c | 61.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 71c | 61.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 54c | 53.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 53c | 52.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 50.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 50.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 49.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed Yes | 43c | 48.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 46.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 44c | 45.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 50c | 45.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 51c | 41.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 40.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 40.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 28c | 39.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 39.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 39.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 43c | 38.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 37.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…b0a1backed No | 57c | 37.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 39c | 34.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 31c | 32.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 38c | 32.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.