Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10ca75a25084b7c4a1e3538df5350220fcac4cbef5c16e5d3dc27e3fac271435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 63c | 1,516$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.23 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,150$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.19 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 884.96$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.92 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 721.06$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 27c | 556.71$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.63 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 531.22$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 467$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 442.99$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.06 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 440.36$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.99 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 3c | 433.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 68c | 394$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.31 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 384.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.09 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 350$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.56 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 40c | 306.06$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 304.28$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.87 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 287.73$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 284.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.02 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 70c | 272.45$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 36c | 249.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 66c | 235.22$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 6c | 213.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 21c | 210.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 30c | 196$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.94 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 15c | 194$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.05 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…388fbacked No | 68c | 189.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 187.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 179.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 40c | 170.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…e691backed Yes | 24c | 156.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.12 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 64c | 149.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 62c | 140.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 140.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 139.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…368ebacked Yes | 34c | 133$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed No | 64c | 132.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 132$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 33c | 129.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 127$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 40c | 125.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 31c | 124.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 124.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 64c | 123.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 60c | 121.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed No | 62c | 120.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 115.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 112.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 37c | 107.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 105$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 98.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 95.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 74c | 93.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 69c | 88.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 58c | 86.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 39c | 86.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 84.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 78.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed No | 64c | 74.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 22c | 69.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…bd75backed No | 66c | 68.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 20c | 67.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 64.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 64.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 64.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 43c | 64.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 41c | 64.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…7058backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 61.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked Yes | 23c | 61.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 61.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 61.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 26c | 56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 38c | 53.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 32c | 51.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 50.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 44.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 67c | 43.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 27c | 40.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 33c | 38.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 31.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…13d2backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 27.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 62c | 26.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 26.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 25.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 25.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.