Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ef178859fd2eb34d829e072dec2d62bd8233295ffc16a2f1994a3c56c4af004
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x241c…2f7fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,499$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 30c | 2,909$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.66 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 80c | 2,639$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.85 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 17c | 1,883$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.89 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 3c | 1,438$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 60c | 1,243$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.39 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 64c | 700.28$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.02 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 50c | 558.62$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 53c | 554$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 449.81$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 47c | 434.17$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.15 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 51c | 388.09$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.09 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 372.42$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.66 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 54c | 351.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.39 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed No | 32c | 329$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.93 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 45c | 304$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.62 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 301.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.59 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 298.12$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 8c | 293.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 286.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 279.25$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 37c | 270.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.17 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4e…37a9backed No | 53c | 269.11$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 54c | 263.06$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.74 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.19 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 244.01$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 243.26$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 233.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 50c | 224.88$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 224.16$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…1b2fbacked No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 179.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…e691backed No | 43c | 174.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 171.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed No | 46c | 167.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed No | 20c | 165.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 155$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 44c | 152.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 151.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 29c | 146.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 143.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 61c | 142.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 48c | 137.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 37c | 133.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 49c | 132.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 42c | 131.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 46c | 126.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 51c | 125.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 124.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…7320backed Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…632ebacked No | 33c | 115.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 112.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 71c | 112$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 36c | 110.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 110.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked No | 37c | 109.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 48c | 108.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 33c | 104.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 11c | 104.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 101.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 100.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 98.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 97.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 70c | 95.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 92.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 31c | 91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 69c | 87.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 40c | 87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 86.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 49c | 84.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 32c | 82.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 81.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 79.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 37c | 76.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 70.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 50c | 70.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 69c | 68.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed No | 43c | 68.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 58c | 67.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 50c | 66.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked No | 41c | 65.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 29c | 63.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 44c | 60.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed Yes | 29c | 59.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 61c | 58.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 70c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 54.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 66c | 53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 77c | 50.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 42c | 50.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…b0d6backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 49.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.