NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10d9f9165a1b2f110e9cb4f4f5cb4507fdc702b1116030aacf8b7435fcfa5575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa25…05e8backed Under | 50c | 2,484$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.02 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 55c | 2,230$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.65 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6043…84afbacked Over | 50c | 1,845$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 1,736$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.61 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 54c | 1,460$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.6 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 453$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 38c | 333$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 58c | 173.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 51c | 164.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Over | 64c | 124.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 54c | 76.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…51d6backed Over | 65c | 76.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 47c | 67.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 41c | 56.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 50.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 46.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…73e6backed Over | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…b595backed Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 41c | 32.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 55c | 27.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…b15cbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Jazz vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 246.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 247.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 248.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 250.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 251.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-15.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.