NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 250.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d29d0a3894bf6d4a67012e8d46473464049e344f179814ebe900a58d9a907ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 51c | 9,361$4,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,774.33 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 2,582$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 1,581$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.44 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 51c | 1,294$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 52c | 1,040$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.8 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 52c | 967.31$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 959$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Under | 49c | 936.51$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.62 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 49c | 799.99$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Under | 49c | 515$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.65 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 485$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.2 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 48c | 399.97$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 51c | 300$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 249.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…b062backed Under | 48c | 219.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 548 | 38%208 W · 340 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…dc0fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…272cbacked Under | 48c | 101.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 100.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Under | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…b8bbbacked Over | 51c | 61.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…5f7ebacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 124 | 50%62 W · 62 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…51d6backed Over | 53c | 56.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d3bebacked Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 49c | 24.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 250.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Jazz vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 246.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 247.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 248.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 251.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-15.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.