TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 247.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,584 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb230…4193backed Over52c9,806$5,100 inLost-$5,099.5419351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a1…0c2cbacked Under48c9,788$4,698 inWon+$5,089.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+34.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcebf…0706backed Over51c2,100$1,071 inLost-$1,0711952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37f1…d157backed Under49c2,100$1,029 inWon+$1,0711947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over53c2,034$1,078 inLost-$1,078.042,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c1,797$845 inWon+$952.659,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Under53c443.13$236 inWon+$206.726352.4%33 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under50c333$167 inWon+$166.53,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over50c243$122 inLost-$121.53,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under46c136.99$64 inWon+$73.311,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Over56c126$71 inLost-$70.562369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+40%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c22…43a0backed Over51c126$64 inLost-$64.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over47c123.05$58 inLost-$58.141,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under51c123$63 inWon+$60.272,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c123$60 inLost-$60.274,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over56c75$42 inLost-$42.088,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over48c72.92$35 inLost-$35.082,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Over53c65.82$35 inLost-$3532750.2%164 W · 163 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd41…42b3backed Under44c65$29 inWon+$36.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d34…9c71backed Under44c61$27 inWon+$34.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+61.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under49c54$26 inWon+$27.5433147.4%157 W · 174 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Over46c50$23 inLost-$2380146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c3…81e3backed Over54c46.3$25 inLost-$254353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under44c45.45$20 inWon+$25.452,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.