NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce74ba72e55cc9d9e082f2a025fb84db55e442db50cac102960d5351dc2118b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Jazz | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Nuggets | 49c | 9,989$4,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,094.35 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…14adbacked Nuggets | 45c | 8,034$3,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,418.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…b291backed Jazz | 55c | 8,034$4,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,418.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Jazz | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Jazz | 59c | 1,696$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 42c | 1,694$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Nuggets | 43c | 1,297$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.15 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…b6dfbacked Nuggets | 44c | 1,149$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Jazz | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Nuggets | 42c | 548.27$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Jazz | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Jazz | 57c | 391.23$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Nuggets | 47c | 347.43$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.14 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Nuggets | 45c | 205.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Jazz | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…c123backed Jazz | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 64c | 192.8$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Nuggets | 43c | 176$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Jazz | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Jazz | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Jazz | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Nuggets | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Jazz | 53c | 90.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 45c | 84.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jazz | 54c | 74.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Jazz | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz | 54c | 58.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Nuggets | 46c | 58.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 219 | 37%81 W · 138 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Nuggets | 42c | 56.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Jazz | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Jazz | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nuggets | 42c | 52.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Nuggets | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Jazz | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…b7c2backed Jazz | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Jazz | 55c | 29.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Nuggets | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Jazz vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 246.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 247.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 248.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 250.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 251.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-15.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.