NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe4b549614de3c4a2d547a38f35d307a53bdcecfe7d8d3b9f23acd7cccd893a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2e7…be51backed Jazz | 52c | 150,272$77,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,397 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Nuggets | 48c | 50,685$24,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,356.16 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Nuggets | 49c | 40,600$19,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,706 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Nuggets | 50c | 26,000$13,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,000 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Jazz | 50c | 21,534$10,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,767.12 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nuggets | 48c | 15,990$7,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,314.58 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 49c | 13,532$6,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,949.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 13,000$6,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,629.99 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 49c | 7,112$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,662.43 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Jazz | 49c | 5,637$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,761.89 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Jazz | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Nuggets | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaceb…6f8ebacked Nuggets | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Nuggets | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,980$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.97 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871f…7630backed Jazz | 50c | 1,202$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Nuggets | 50c | 996$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets | 48c | 859$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.68 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Jazz | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Jazz | 34c | 634.17$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.82 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Nuggets | 59c | 517.18$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.44 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Nuggets | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 55c | 376.98$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Jazz | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Jazz | 50c | 230$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…041fbacked Jazz | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nuggets | 66c | 219.97$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Nuggets | 50c | 217$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Jazz | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Jazz | 50c | 206.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…14f5backed Nuggets | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Nuggets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 240 | 55.4%133 W · 107 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Nuggets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Jazz | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jazz | 48c | 137.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…782cbacked Jazz | 16c | 126.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 144 | 20.1%29 W · 115 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Nuggets | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Jazz | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Nuggets | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Nuggets | 48c | 103.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Jazz | 50c | 101.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Jazz | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Jazz | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…adb7backed Jazz | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…d6b4backed Jazz | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Jazz | 41c | 85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Nuggets | 49c | 65.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Nuggets | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Nuggets | 50c | 58.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…1974backed Jazz | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets | 50c | 45.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nuggets | 54c | 41.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Nuggets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Nuggets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Nuggets | 49c | 37.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 54c | 37.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Nuggets | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jazz | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…2b1ebacked Nuggets | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Nuggets | 48c | 24.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Nuggets | 50c | 24.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…1dccbacked Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 270 | 34.8%94 W · 176 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Jazz vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 246.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 247.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 248.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 250.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 251.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-15.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.