NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 251.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eec4e2e1217134c0d8c5bfd8d95c9dc7de1df72e46f75fc60e6810cf51bfb6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 9,055$4,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,527.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…15fabacked Under | 52c | 7,670$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,669.77 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 7,108$3,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 2,412$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.87 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 1,727$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.56 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 1,172$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.77 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 951$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 50c | 923$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.5 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 51c | 399.98$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 52c | 300$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 102.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Over | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 49c | 48.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…a268backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 251.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Jazz vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 246.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 247.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 248.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 250.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-15.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.