NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5549eff3d153e7bdc1e50aafbc2ecbefd6e7532f1421836a1849a800cc103c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Nuggets | 49c | 6,892$3,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,481.29 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Jazz | 55c | 5,033$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,768.15 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Jazz | 50c | 2,678$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.13 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Nuggets | 50c | 2,458$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.98 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.15 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Jazz | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Jazz | 51c | 576.86$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.2 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Jazz | 51c | 427.32$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.45 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Jazz | 51c | 388.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Jazz | 55c | 364.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Jazz | 50c | 337.63$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.32 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Jazz | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…cc74backed Jazz | 51c | 242.31$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Nuggets | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Jazz | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Nuggets | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Jazz | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 51c | 108.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Nuggets | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…582ebacked Jazz | 52c | 95.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Nuggets | 47c | 94.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…b8d2backed Jazz | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Jazz | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…180ebacked Jazz | 55c | 54.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…6d5cbacked Jazz | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Jazz | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Jazz | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 51c | 40.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Jazz | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Nuggets | 46c | 30.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Jazz vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 246.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 247.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 248.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 250.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 251.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-15.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.