NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 246.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e1d40d75c0a8a0ba32e7b520ba41b3a2a708b03fc12ece3b52c1bc4fe4ef6cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 54c | 5,435$2,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 46c | 5,435$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 54c | 1,866$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.66 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…05e8backed Under | 51c | 1,199$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.78 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,011$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.06 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 26c | 1,009$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 45c | 990$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.5 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 55c | 990$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.5 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 55c | 905.67$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.55 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 865.65$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.79 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…f34ebacked Over | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Over | 9c | 265.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.74 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Over | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…8079backed Over | 54c | 129$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 116.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 53c | 101.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 53c | 100.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 79.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…5e4ebacked Under | 43c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…b613backed Under | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Under | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 40.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 55c | 38.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 246.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Jazz vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 247.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 248.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 250.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 251.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-15.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.