Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11236de10040eeada5b8a01803de315616ef4905fc7a2b71f461c075569760aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 27c | 477.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 349.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 287.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 195.48$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 27c | 179$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 178.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 158.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 153.91$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 145.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 140.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 136.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2274…ffe9backed Yes | 27c | 118.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 104.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 102$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 101.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 94.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 92.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 85.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 82.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 27c | 72.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 42c | 72.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 64.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d3…7badbacked Yes | 26c | 58.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 70c | 55.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 25c | 46.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 45.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 39.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 35.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 39c | 25.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 69c | 22.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6b5dbacked No | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 68c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.