NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11b325b8487ab62dd378b7c7894d0e76ff55c177a72fd637c56d2e353580e60c

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $57,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $60,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,482 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8b39…0d7ebacked Over	50c	12,300$6,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,150	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7900…c1e9backed Under	50c	12,300$6,150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,150	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.30per pick	50cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9315…a744backed Under	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	67	67.2%45 W · 22 L	+10.7wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x18a4…1a5dbacked Over	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	52c	4,059$2,110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,109.73	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	51c	3,100$1,579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,521.08	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a4…5c91backed Over	50c	2,914$1,457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,457	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Under	49c	2,898$1,420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,478.11	237	47.7%113 W · 124 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Over	51c	2,528$1,289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,289.22	363	51.2%186 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under	74c	2,370$1,755 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$615.18	1,055	49.9%526 W · 529 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Over	51c	2,157$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Over	7c	2,112$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.95	390	18.2%71 W · 319 L	+27.6wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Under	49c	2,056$1,007 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,048.43	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Under	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	50c	1,954$977 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$977.05	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	49c	1,760$862 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$897.54	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Over	50c	1,600$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Over	2c	1,400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	43	7%3 W · 40 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	51c	1,329$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.92	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Over	53c	1,226$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	46c	1,202$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$653.32	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc95…c60fbacked Over	51c	1,187$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.26	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2885…486cbacked Under	47c	999.99$470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$529.99	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	50c	978$489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$489	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	58c	943.29$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.32	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	47c	903.06$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$478.62	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Under	48c	831.83$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$431.83	254	52.8%134 W · 120 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Over	2c	819.25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.37	72	30.6%22 W · 50 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	49c	612$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.12	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	60c	398.56$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.8	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over	53c	329$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.37	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	47c	308$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.24	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Under	13c	215$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.7	165	50.9%84 W · 81 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Under	20c	200$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3516…ea50backed Over	52c	190$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.8	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9eb…ae0ebacked Under	47c	182.6$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.78	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under	46c	178$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.12	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Over	59c	169.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	99	57.6%57 W · 42 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under	44c	151.16$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.79	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Over	50c	150$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	217	49.3%107 W · 110 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	40c	144.4$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.52	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Under	47c	127.66$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.66	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	44c	111.5$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.05	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Over	55c	109.09$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ff…4085backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	477	38.2%182 W · 295 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Under	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.18	271	44.3%120 W · 151 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bdd…6da4backed Over	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	43c	92.5$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	42c	91.22$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.83	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e6…224cbacked Over	54c	74.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	54c	73.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ad…5a42backed Under	49c	61.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.22	84	52.4%44 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0a…7d46backed Under	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f74…558dbacked Over	51c	57.02$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.08	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	55c	52.4$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.82	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed Under	47c	45$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.85	99	43.4%43 W · 56 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Under	48c	45$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.4	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Under	50c	40.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.15	762	50.4%384 W · 378 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	57c	40$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0854…fb45backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	47cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f7a…6563backed Under	48c	39$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.28	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1df…4404backed Under	46c	35.16$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.99	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-3.0wins	-0.17per pick	39cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	53c	29.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bbb…1a0dbacked Under	50c	28.73$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.33	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…de52backed Over	52c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over	56c	22.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3add…e482backed Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce42…5cddbacked Over	53c	19.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event