NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3adc6f65267e23c45cad67c9c2887077172c401c1101105e3e7f9fe46f9b908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Magic, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 52c | 4,820$2,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.73 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Pacers | 49c | 3,222$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.45 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Magic | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 46c | 1,515$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Magic | 52c | 1,501$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.48 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 52c | 1,342$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.42 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Magic | 54c | 1,241$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.29 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 46c | 1,231$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.65 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…8887backed Magic | 52c | 1,133$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.18 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Pacers | 50c | 1,109$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.07 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Pacers | 49c | 807.16$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.16 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Magic | 51c | 750$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Pacers | 49c | 714.29$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.29 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Pacers | 61c | 674.07$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.19 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Pacers | 56c | 667.43$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.6 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Magic | 54c | 628.31$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.29 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic | 51c | 590$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Magic | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Magic | 44c | 433.42$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.55 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pacers | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Magic | 52c | 318$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.18 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Pacers | 47c | 299.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…c607backed Magic | 68c | 296.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pacers | 32c | 274.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.24 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 48c | 247.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Magic | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Magic | 53c | 227.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Magic | 50c | 220$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Pacers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Magic | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Magic | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pacers | 42c | 125$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Magic | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Magic | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Pacers | 48c | 104$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Pacers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…eca5backed Magic | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Pacers | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Magic | 52c | 94.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Magic | 51c | 85.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Pacers | 49c | 83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…d693backed Magic | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Magic | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Pacers | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Magic | 52c | 65.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Magic | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Pacers | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Magic | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Pacers | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Magic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22f…7714backed Magic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Magic | 55c | 36.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Pacers | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pacers | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Pacers | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Magic | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Magic | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Magic | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Pacers | 52c | 22.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Pacers | 48c | 21.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Pacers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73a…ec04backed Magic | 62c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)this page
- Magic vs. PacersMagic won
- Magic vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pacers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pacers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.