CS2 · resolved market
CS: Astralis vs paiN
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12101e79954b6bcc9679f315f19ce6a02b382243d48d05d0d1dec00cb23d726b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof Astralis, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed paiN | 35c | 25,000$8,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,249.97 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Astralis | 65c | 18,594$12,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,086.15 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked paiN | 36c | 3,324$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.24 | 214 | 24.8%53 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Astralis | 64c | 2,971$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.04 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Astralis | 12c | 2,149$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.36 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Astralis | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Astralis | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.99 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Astralis | 64c | 1,892$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.83 | 196 | 60.7%119 W · 77 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed paiN | 64c | 1,800$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 233 | 55.4%129 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Astralis | 33c | 1,575$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.2 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed paiN | 36c | 1,420$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.98 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Astralis | 63c | 1,274$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.47 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Astralis | 18c | 1,168$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.38 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Astralis | 65c | 1,090$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.73 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Astralis | 45c | 1,085$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.44 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Astralis | 67c | 1,053$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.41 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Astralis | 45c | 855.86$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.28 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked paiN | 33c | 699.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.69 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…53c3backed Astralis | 67c | 679.05$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.38 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked paiN | 36c | 666.63$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.53 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…7465backed paiN | 34c | 503$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.98 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed paiN | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…a304backed Astralis | 41c | 495.15$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.67 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Astralis | 61c | 476.28$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.53 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Astralis | 7c | 467.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Astralis | 65c | 430.53$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked paiN | 37c | 423$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.09 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa0…253cbacked Astralis | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Astralis | 62c | 384.21$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.21 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed paiN | 53c | 358$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.64 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed paiN | 38c | 355.26$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.26 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Astralis | 64c | 329.31$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.77 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Astralis | 60c | 320$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.6 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…4b40backed Astralis | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…212ebacked paiN | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 65c | 245.82$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed paiN | 36c | 225$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked paiN | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed paiN | 37c | 190$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed paiN | 37c | 180$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed paiN | 62c | 179$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 384 | 52.3%201 W · 183 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Astralis | 57c | 175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Astralis | 40c | 174$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Astralis | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed Astralis | 65c | 154.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Astralis | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Astralis | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Astralis | 24c | 134.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Astralis | 46c | 128.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked paiN | 53c | 116$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked Astralis | 32c | 106.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…31b6backed Astralis | 35c | 102.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked paiN | 39c | 100.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Astralis | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed Astralis | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed paiN | 39c | 89.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Astralis | 21c | 85.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 236 | 46.2%109 W · 127 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Astralis | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…59d1backed paiN | 56c | 60.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed paiN | 39c | 55.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed paiN | 64c | 45.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 687 | 53.9%370 W · 317 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…8490backed paiN | 73c | 40.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked paiN | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed paiN | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed paiN | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Astralis | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 23.7%46 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc1…ca19backed Astralis | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…f301backed Astralis | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 57.7%116 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Astralis | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 283 | 46.6%132 W · 151 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed Astralis | 64c | 29.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed paiN | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed paiN | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Astralis | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Astralis | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.