MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12bdc28726084300c7794adf1b618959a10ede9f9bcaf116394f713768628ee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 19,870$9,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,935 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 15,772$7,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,893.49 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 7,471$3,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,025.46 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 4,659$2,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.65 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 4,202$2,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.97 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Seattle Mariners | 58c | 2,948$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.31 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 2,000$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 1,853$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.41 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 1,791$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.96 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 1,616$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.07 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Seattle Mariners | 69c | 1,513$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.35 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 1,069$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.09 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 630$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 107 | 19.6%21 W · 86 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 284$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.84 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 261.32$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 229.85$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7490…f3efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 182$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 150.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 139.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 48.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 37.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 23.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.