TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$428,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$629,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $428,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed Under 2.553c200,000$106,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,0004647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over 2.547c62,987$29,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,604.0534136.4%124 W · 217 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Over 2.578c6,923$5,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,427.56972.5%50 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.523c4,051$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,108.247,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ee…ae61backed Under 2.553c3,026$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.013351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under 2.529c3,005$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.312,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9461…7fc6backed Under 2.563c2,019$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02b…70d6backed Under 2.550c1,422$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.8417462.6%109 W · 65 L+34.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+35.2%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.525c1,327$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.592,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3b…b190backed Over 2.547c1,238$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-28.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc452…7234backed Over 2.547c1,030$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.110453.8%56 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.554c972.03$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.137,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x246d…c74dbacked Over 2.550c970$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48518053.9%97 W · 83 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Under 2.547c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2658552.9%45 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc19e…c764backed Under 2.551c388.24$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.241540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ece…8786backed Over 2.547c378.96$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.1115548.4%75 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa6…d3c2backed Over 2.549c365.11$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1746562.6%291 W · 174 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a81…7debbacked Over 2.554c360.15$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4814564.1%93 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e12…0ae4backed Under 2.535c276.18$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.15543.6%24 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Under 2.555c246.91$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.1149252.4%258 W · 234 L+28.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x477b…f7c5backed Over 2.547c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b33…044ebacked Over 2.550c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Over 2.548c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9695742.1%403 W · 554 L-24.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Over 2.549c197.69$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9424259.9%145 W · 97 L-12.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92fb…09d0backed Over 2.550c194.56$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb002…103dbacked Under 2.554c194.48$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4636852.7%194 W · 174 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a4…78a2backed Over 2.550c194.25$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under 2.552c186.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.651,41745.2%640 W · 777 L+41.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Under 2.553c184.45$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.291,42848.2%689 W · 739 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over 2.558c160.94$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8340048.5%194 W · 206 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e0…1fd1backed Over 2.550c155.58$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.59450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe454…8b7dbacked Over 2.555c142.19$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.899260.9%56 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under 2.554c132.49$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9523731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb20…a151backed Under 2.548c126.3$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.51566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8f…c01dbacked Over 2.544c121.03$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Over 2.547c103$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4138951.9%202 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.552c100.61$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.279,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Over 2.546c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4635439.8%141 W · 213 L-15.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Over 2.547c99.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9535649.4%176 W · 180 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ff…ec56backed Over 2.547c99.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.942245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d26…ccb8backed Over 2.578c99.87$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.913762.8%86 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa64c…34f2backed Under 2.556c97.76$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0133747.2%159 W · 178 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbc8…bdb8backed Under 2.579c97.53$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1315263.8%97 W · 55 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13bb…a36cbacked Over 2.546c97.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.511857.6%68 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abb…3f96backed Over 2.550c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.527871.6%199 W · 79 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Under 2.552c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1513958.3%81 W · 58 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38ab…4e8dbacked Over 2.551c95.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.532650%13 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.554c92.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.381,16849.1%573 W · 595 L-2.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce6d…4968backed Over 2.549c76.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.545841.4%24 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f34…1a46backed Under 2.555c76$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Under 2.565c75.14$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4121957.1%125 W · 94 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under 2.554c74.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.392,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dcf…f174backed Under 2.556c73.02$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.139351.6%48 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed Under 2.555c63.49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.572176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Over 2.546c59.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3953544.1%236 W · 299 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Over 2.549c57.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1124945.4%113 W · 136 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e11…e1f5backed Under 2.553c56.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7821451.4%110 W · 104 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdac1…baddbacked Under 2.554c54.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.92425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dcc…45f6backed Under 2.554c53.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.377345.2%33 W · 40 L-10.4wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-29%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x265e…327bbacked Over 2.550c48.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.253935.9%14 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x097c…630abacked Over 2.554c45.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3121052.4%110 W · 100 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked Over 2.547c43.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.364757.4%27 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd44…225ebacked Over 2.526c42.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.07450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x372a…eb59backed Over 2.546c42.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.35650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under 2.552c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over 2.533c39.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under 2.548c39.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.945051.8%233 W · 217 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x264d…6f2bbacked Under 2.552c37.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.931656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1872…bcabbacked Under 2.552c37.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.938658.1%50 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6924…1455backed Under 2.553c36.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.247363%46 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8a4…e797backed Over 2.544c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bbf…f4e6backed Over 2.546c33.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4814257%81 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x045f…763cbacked Under 2.566c32.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.211060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc42…01b2backed Under 2.550c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1510059%59 W · 41 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed Under 2.550c27.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.588343.4%36 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa0…aa66backed Over 2.577c25.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.722560%15 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21b8…47f4backed Over 2.577c24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-48%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c6…9508backed Over 2.547c23.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.19100%0 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Under 2.562c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.365343.4%23 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over 2.550c21.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6728724.4%70 W · 217 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7a…52c9backed Under 2.558c19.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.195139.2%20 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.