Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Sinner (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cc32b8ee3a903e5c1c6b2837adc967f7fa45c7ae04f8f6d3ec4c0c6939a0f78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Alcaraz, Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Alcaraz | 26c | 4,162$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.21 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…306fbacked Sinner | 77c | 3,826$2,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.7 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…f3fdbacked Sinner | 74c | 3,253$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.85 | 277 | 62.8%174 W · 103 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Alcaraz | 25c | 2,755$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.7 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Alcaraz | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…0d5ebacked Sinner | 75c | 1,970$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Alcaraz | 23c | 1,701$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.52 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Alcaraz | 24c | 1,238$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.16 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…4954backed Sinner | 76c | 1,035$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.06 | 105 | 70.5%74 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Alcaraz | 23c | 884.13$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…c41cbacked Sinner | 59c | 821.17$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.34 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaf…09afbacked Sinner | 78c | 622.61$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.51 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Sinner | 74c | 577.32$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.31 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Sinner | 74c | 399.24$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Sinner | 75c | 384.49$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Alcaraz | 29c | 330.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…1d37backed Sinner | 78c | 283.84$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…0d9cbacked Alcaraz | 27c | 195.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sinner | 71c | 195.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Alcaraz | 26c | 191.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Sinner | 74c | 134.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sinner | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Sinner | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…ba50backed Sinner | 74c | 129.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Alcaraz | 27c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alcaraz | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Alcaraz | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Alcaraz | 26c | 74.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Sinner | 70c | 70.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…36c4backed Sinner | 74c | 66.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…fa71backed Sinner | 74c | 64.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Alcaraz | 30c | 62.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed67…7122backed Sinner | 77c | 57.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Alcaraz | 28c | 51.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…6099backed Sinner | 74c | 39.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…dd4bbacked Sinner | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b65…eaedbacked Sinner | 74c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…c264backed Sinner | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…fe20backed Sinner | 79c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Sinner (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs SinnerSinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.