Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6a478a4b3fc3c5e2802a09ab91fa6a478bd33ef41fd71330dfa63f7ecc95ac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Over | 61c | 1,322$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.75 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Under | 39c | 882.62$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.22 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 38c | 707.05$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.07 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Over | 62c | 499.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…2381backed Over | 62c | 472.55$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.39 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed Under | 39c | 372.51$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 38c | 312.91$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 29c | 238.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 37c | 177.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…85f7backed Over | 59c | 161.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 37c | 158.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…d1fdbacked Over | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Over | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 39c | 140.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 508 | 45.9%233 W · 275 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Over | 72c | 136.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Over | 62c | 131.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 38c | 101.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 468 | 48.5%227 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Over | 69c | 98.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 41c | 91.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 485 | 52.8%256 W · 229 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 61c | 83.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…8206backed Over | 60c | 82.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 38c | 61.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 38c | 58.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…2b3abacked Over | 63c | 57.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 41c | 54.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Over | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b65…eaedbacked Over | 63c | 46.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Under | 38c | 44.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 39c | 38.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…52cabacked Over | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…1860backed Over | 63c | 24.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eea…da7fbacked Over | 61c | 21.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 128 | 74.2%95 W · 33 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…6f0cbacked Over | 63c | 20.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs SinnerSinner won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Sinner (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.