Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d7f111524aa3858afb91b4e7be8d2768655325ef49511323667e7ed16977050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2dd…e1b2backed Over | 38c | 1,935$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 63c | 1,283$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.84 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 1,011$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.95 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 964.19$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.85 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 911.99$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.7 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e9…a86ebacked Over | 55c | 884.55$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed Over | 58c | 833.46$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 45c | 544.64$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.55 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…ee20backed Over | 55c | 531.34$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.89 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 42c | 497.12$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.59 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Over | 56c | 436.54$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.36 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 64c | 435.22$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 442 | 29.6%131 W · 311 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 427.27$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over | 55c | 398.05$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.93 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…2381backed Over | 55c | 353.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80b…7e1bbacked Over | 56c | 344.79$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 60c | 268.4$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…85f7backed Over | 54c | 199.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Over | 57c | 194.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 45c | 119.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Under | 57c | 97.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 67c | 97.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 163 | 58.9%96 W · 67 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…7ebebacked Over | 55c | 88.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Over | 56c | 85.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Under | 44c | 67.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 166 | 36.7%61 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…ba50backed Over | 65c | 57.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…bdb8backed Under | 64c | 54.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 152 | 63.8%97 W · 55 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac2…7e7cbacked Over | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb5…cc10backed Over | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 54c | 35.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…8b48backed Over | 57c | 34.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 508 | 45.9%233 W · 275 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c4ddbacked Over | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…5926backed Under | 46c | 22.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…8a75backed Over | 56c | 21.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs SinnerSinner won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Sinner (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.