Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Sinner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x248b9fd33e2743e65354180a5396df9ea357bef3d4ed71e473bfcb3b6576526b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Alcaraz, Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Alcaraz | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.99 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…0fa1backed Sinner | 51c | 7,613$3,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,730.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6551…e043backed Alcaraz | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,430 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Sinner | 51c | 5,041$2,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.91 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…fe85backed Sinner | 56c | 4,190$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.7 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Sinner | 51c | 3,882$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Alcaraz | 48c | 2,836$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.32 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…a277backed Alcaraz | 61c | 2,417$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Alcaraz | 47c | 1,737$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.79 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c7…bf04backed Sinner | 53c | 1,242$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.74 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Alcaraz | 51c | 815.46$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.43 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Alcaraz | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Alcaraz | 45c | 778$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Alcaraz | 51c | 689$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.36 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Sinner | 43c | 526.81$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.28 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Sinner | 50c | 523.82$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…2f79backed Sinner | 38c | 506.74$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Alcaraz | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 342 | 42.4%145 W · 197 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Sinner | 51c | 453.13$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.04 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alcaraz | 43c | 445.12$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.26 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Sinner | 51c | 430$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.1 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Alcaraz | 47c | 391.36$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.94 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Alcaraz | 39c | 347.22$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 567 | 54.5%309 W · 258 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…477cbacked Alcaraz | 65c | 289.18$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9461…7fc6backed Alcaraz | 80c | 249.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Alcaraz | 56c | 248.74$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.29 | 310 | 39.4%122 W · 188 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…ee5fbacked Sinner | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Alcaraz | 61c | 239.53$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.71 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Alcaraz | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96cb…75cbbacked Sinner | 51c | 232.47$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 114 | 26.3%30 W · 84 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…f7c5backed Sinner | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alcaraz | 47c | 195$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Alcaraz | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ac…0317backed Alcaraz | 52c | 137.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0299…5f02backed Alcaraz | 50c | 135.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…57a3backed Sinner | 47c | 133.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…6f10backed Alcaraz | 51c | 127.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Alcaraz | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2580…f1fabacked Sinner | 51c | 114.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…4968backed Alcaraz | 68c | 113.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…0d9cbacked Sinner | 54c | 107.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Alcaraz | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6f…ddf5backed Sinner | 60c | 93.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3b…d73dbacked Alcaraz | 44c | 90.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…e3ddbacked Alcaraz | 55c | 87.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Sinner | 48c | 86.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Alcaraz | 47c | 82.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Alcaraz | 56c | 81.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Sinner | 63c | 77.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 167 | 61.1%102 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…13adbacked Sinner | 36c | 72.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x295a…5adabacked Alcaraz | 61c | 64.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…a36cbacked Sinner | 63c | 62.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sinner | 48c | 62.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed Alcaraz | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…ae90backed Sinner | 51c | 59.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed Sinner | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 212 | 56.1%119 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Sinner | 51c | 52.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Sinner | 51c | 52.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -10.4wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Sinner | 51c | 51.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 369 | 44.4%164 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Sinner | 41c | 47.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93f…6769backed Alcaraz | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked Alcaraz | 47c | 45.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed Sinner | 49c | 43.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 313 | 58.5%183 W · 130 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300e…6ee3backed Alcaraz | 51c | 37.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…c118backed Alcaraz | 52c | 37.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aac…2cc8backed Sinner | 50c | 36.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Sinner | 38c | 34.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7aec…ef65backed Alcaraz | 49c | 32.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…2fecbacked Sinner | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Alcaraz | 56c | 29.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Sinner | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Alcaraz | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 268 | 47%126 W · 142 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Sinnerthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Sinner (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.