TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-06?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$291,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$313,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,484 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked No67c29,123$19,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,538.21,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes45c25,694$11,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,562.210553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05f4…7c4cbacked No54c23,595$12,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,853.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f0…921dbacked Yes46c22,010$10,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,124.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No65c20,970$13,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,340.556051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No55c11,813$6,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,315.952222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes23c10,427$2,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,366.792,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Yes45c10,300$4,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,636.314456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Yes45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.981855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No55c7,700$4,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,46556547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed No55c7,273$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,272.734254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No60c6,860$4,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,778.143,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,76016647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Yes45c5,500$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5006058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Yes45c5,500$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.995653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No54c5,163$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.241,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a35…59febacked No55c5,145$2,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.15650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25023745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Yes45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No55c3,876$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.983145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No55c3,836$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.345440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes46c3,366$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.3633945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a6…a6d3backed No67c3,214$2,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed No65c3,193$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.453268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No54c3,089$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.716126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed No66c3,085$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.29951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No57c3,081$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.2875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes46c3,009$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.123046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd544…4d5ebacked Yes11c2,996$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked No53c2,781$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.922646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Yes46c2,326$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.064854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Yes3c2,294$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5513139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes45c2,285$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.2530054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Yes46c2,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes35c2,164$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.952520%5 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3859…3070backed Yes45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a9c…c9aebacked Yes47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9401533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed No56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed Yes18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes24c1,992$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.638630.2%26 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes45c1,733$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7802128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes45c1,590$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Yes18c1,362$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Yes46c1,305$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.552951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0315…5eb3backed Yes37c1,300$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes3c1,200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7926433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4406053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed No55c800$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3603447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Yes4c755.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.081827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No56c658.43$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.712951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed No66c636.41$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.38540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed No54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2765044%22 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa34…6628backed Yes3c600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No54c599.99$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.9919446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a5…d47bbacked No67c577$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.41850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec06…9d24backed No56c572.07$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x064e…4347backed Yes35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick45cpaid-80.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes43c545.05$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.3755058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes44c540$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.65020%10 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-54.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes46c476$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9610361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes45c445$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2524322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5528…c098backed Yes46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18031145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes5c399.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4533737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No56c387.72$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.4830647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc7c…958ebacked No55c360$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1623020%6 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeae…c71abacked No57c355.2$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes34c352.94$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ac…5ea8backed No57c352.47$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aaa…6d55backed No57c351.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ca…7223backed No57c351.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa9c…c92fbacked Yes44c350.58$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ce…b2f8backed Yes44c350.25$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2edf…8475backed Yes46c350$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ddd…6a6bbacked Yes44c348.1$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x237e…74a3backed Yes44c346.77$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb64c…a016backed Yes44c345.11$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba0…816cbacked No57c338.19$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7058…26b2backed Yes33c324.97$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No54c306.82$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1416045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Yes45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353560%21 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No66c288.32$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4178248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes46c267.57$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0834342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410a…2643backed No53c250$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes46c249.86$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb007…7f04backed No54c238$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No56c231.53$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.873050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked No55c231.31$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.095149%25 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7226…873dbacked Yes41c228.94$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.29666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10034547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Yes45c218.31$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.242147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd1c…d7e5backed Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed No54c217.39$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10033340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5eac…525ebacked Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd52d…f4cdbacked Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3a…9993backed No53c215.12$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.115865.5%38 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes46c204.98$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2910235.3%36 W · 66 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.