TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc22…7e8abacked No0c12,620$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No70c5,568$3,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,876.4575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes27c5,160$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,766.21,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No13c4,638$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.582,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No16c3,028$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.4113139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No46c3,005$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.93,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x347c…525abacked Yes31c2,773$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.643644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Yes57c2,281$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.72055%11 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12c6…0691backed Yes27c1,999$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.192356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+34.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1414…ae7bbacked Yes65c1,890$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.51770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No72c1,784$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.7569851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3cc…8675backed No73c1,142$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No31c1,129$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3504129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No72c999.92$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.946053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No39c822.81$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.038630.2%26 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked No24c800$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1922520%5 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b94…d008backed No73c741.1$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes56c719.77$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes33c660.3$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.889646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8723…4c06backed No73c636.99$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No4c620$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.433737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked No60c583.42$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No73c478$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.947758.4%45 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1872…9ba9backed Yes63c429.89$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9dce…b663backed No75c407.52$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.181770.6%12 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Yes31c403.42$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.426344.4%28 W · 35 L+9.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x57c6…fde6backed Yes28c386.46$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes28c357.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.146262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x876f…4f66backed No73c328.77$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed No39c301.72$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3811644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed No68c300$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed No35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10512952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed No71c294.61$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1733340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes29c281$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.5133945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5528…c098backed Yes28c278.57$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.571241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No9c273.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7528241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bab…cf38backed No73c271.63$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8e5…9401backed Yes61c245.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+99.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No17c239$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.698541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked No73c206.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.54151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b43…9e23backed Yes28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1442937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…e1c1backed No32c187.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes27c185$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.0534342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd43…7b3fbacked No51c178.08$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.825858.6%34 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6580…6fa8backed Yes29c175$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.252433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Yes78c170$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes46c156.72$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd52d…f4cdbacked Yes28c152.71$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed No54c152.35$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.742025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7104…8cffbacked Yes68c147.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.272339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x591f…a600backed Yes28c142.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.86887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+63.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5eac…525ebacked Yes29c142.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.31442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d8a…4d5fbacked No73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001070%7 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No73c129.53$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5619446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No71c115.74$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1755058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes26c108.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9276234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb653…f400backed Yes28c107.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.142050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1df…16c1backed Yes77c103.7$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.92245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes76c102.83$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6822669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No47c98.44$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2724541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb253…6575backed No69c96.52$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07b2…56febacked No23c80.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes40c79.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6838151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Yes27c78.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Yes77c75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.257550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed No65c74.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4914934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.431241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+52.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.434344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf669…77c1backed Yes28c70.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+160.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x205b…d66abacked No37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.972560%15 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed No41c68.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.571154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes31c64.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8326433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes62c63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9416060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2223842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.148517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb1…fa48backed Yes28c57.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.141428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6c1…d9febacked Yes41c56.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b8…8712backed Yes73c55.83$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.23683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a57…9ac1backed Yes27c55.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.56922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes76c52.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.381060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5818…a4bebacked No70c52.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a4…d2b5backed Yes76c51.42$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes27c50.01$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.53959%23 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365076%38 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x750d…566bbacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.35250%26 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363464.7%22 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.525855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b5…42e7backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.55664.3%36 W · 20 L+6.6wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x522f…1415backed No35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56583.1%54 W · 11 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99df…b59abacked No60c49.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.74837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No72c47.82$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4335856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked Yes27c44.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.443636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a6…44edbacked Yes28c42.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.867755.8%43 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1823…9a8ebacked Yes77c39.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb985…cf92backed Yes71c37.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.031560%9 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d9…2f4abacked No70c36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.22479.2%19 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+38.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0825…5e07backed No73c28.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.67366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2037…a613backed No75c26.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.