Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13e67664f1f43cb2852b78a26f97e06aae19dd3fe7d9c8d344da18009e39c5b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 47c | 1,360$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.09 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 45c | 669.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 531.93$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 50c | 522.49$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.04 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 325.89$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 266.82$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 256.3$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 236.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 235$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 214.35$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 62c | 197.4$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 187.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 64c | 171.75$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 149.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked No | 57c | 138.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 132.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 132.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 130.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 119.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 117.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 115.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 112.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 57c | 103.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 40c | 103.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…737cbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 96.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 45c | 86.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 56c | 85.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 33c | 77.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 58c | 74.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 50c | 71.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 70c | 71.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 68.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 51c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 59.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed Yes | 62c | 58.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…9cd8backed No | 40c | 57.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 65c | 56.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 55.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…91d9backed No | 38c | 54.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 55c | 53.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 57c | 48.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 49c | 47.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 44c | 47.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee9…90dbbacked Yes | 65c | 45.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…aa43backed Yes | 65c | 45.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77e…aea7backed No | 37c | 44.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 44.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 42.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 42.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 42c | 41.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 40.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 40.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 44c | 40.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 35c | 39.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…9e3dbacked No | 62c | 39.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 45c | 38.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 38.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 38.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 40c | 37.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 52c | 36.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 35c | 35.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 50c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 58c | 34.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 38c | 33.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 36c | 32.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…4183backed No | 31c | 32.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 31.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 43c | 26.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 65c | 24.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…5c84backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee47…6f4ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.