Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88e91583e24711e019dff7a499512be985ea3dd939961a8b8308c88903a13375
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 79c | 705.69$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.3 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 363.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.12 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 287.02$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 235$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 60c | 230.77$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.29 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 230.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 230.19$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 5c | 229.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 219$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.3 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 212$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 40c | 197.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.96 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 37c | 194.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.62 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 178.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.49 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 168.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 63c | 159.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 33c | 153.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 28c | 143.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 143.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 63c | 140.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 138.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 135.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 19c | 132.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 124.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 121.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 119.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 117.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 116$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 101.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 52c | 100.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 98.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 69c | 98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 87.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 85.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 76.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 64.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 61.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 68c | 60.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 52c | 59.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 58.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 58.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 20c | 52.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 34c | 52.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 52.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 53c | 51.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 46.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 46.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 45.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 43.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 40.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 34c | 39.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 36.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 69c | 35.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 70c | 35.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 65c | 33.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 29.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…f6a5backed No | 69c | 27.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 53c | 22.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 70c | 21.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…6891backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…f056backed No | 72c | 19.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858f…b802backed No | 70c | 19.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…e39ebacked No | 75c | 18.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 17.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd938…fa19backed No | 75c | 15.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.