NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13f4c9e0183e0e32397b28597a5402e6a9231844b33e5a715d4e2e4087b347cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,321 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 50c | 10,163$5,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,081.62 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…7c26backed Under | 50c | 8,280$4,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,130.45 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…329abacked Over | 52c | 7,479$3,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,590.26 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 48c | 7,007$3,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,363.36 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 50c | 6,773$3,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,391.26 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 5,374$2,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,710.68 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Over | 51c | 4,200$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058.85 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 3,793$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked Under | 38c | 2,793$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.71 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 1,991$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.28 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.52 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Over | 53c | 1,876$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.27 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 1,786$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.38 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 42c | 1,683$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 59c | 1,632$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.61 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Over | 51c | 1,518$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.82 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 58c | 1,487$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.28 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 50c | 1,304$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.01 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 49c | 1,028$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Under | 47c | 865$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.41 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 739.11$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.61 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b0…a9e6backed Under | 50c | 479.23$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.39 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 34c | 463.74$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.65 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 40c | 459.81$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Under | 49c | 451.51$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.24 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 416.22$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.95 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 403.06$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.47 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 44c | 303.37$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 57c | 287.01$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -13.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 43c | 258.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 27c | 255.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 248.77$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 50c | 236.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Under | 50c | 207$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Under | 17c | 172.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 100 | 28%28 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Under | 51c | 147.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Under | 12c | 130.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 192 | 45.3%87 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Over | 54c | 106.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…2987backed Under | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Under | 48c | 102.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 101.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 282 | 43.3%122 W · 160 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over | 51c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6e…d043backed Under | 37c | 91.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 54c | 70.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 50c | 55.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 46.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 52c | 42.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Over | 68c | 38.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 182 | 61%111 W · 71 L | +16.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…d93abacked Under | 51c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…cdf8backed Over | 66c | 23.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Over | 50c | 21.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Over | 67c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…eed0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. SpursNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.