TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,198
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,198 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under48c531.75$253 inLost-$253.4820638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Over52c405.77$211 inWon+$194.771968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Over53c333.6$176 inWon+$157.391080%8 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+51.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd14…0bb1backed Under71c264$187 inLost-$187.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61a7…aba0backed Under71c261$185 inLost-$185.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e76…9e6ebacked Under71c223$158 inLost-$158.3320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf435…ae2abacked Under71c201$143 inLost-$142.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcbf…3b98backed Under71c201$143 inLost-$142.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b4f…d985backed Over29c174$50 inWon+$123.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c1…b890backed Over29c171$50 inWon+$121.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf4…209cbacked Over29c158$46 inWon+$112.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4cd…258ebacked Over29c157$46 inWon+$111.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78e6…71d5backed Under71c147$104 inLost-$104.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb86f…da81backed Under45c143.42$65 inLost-$6540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xed7d…8fd5backed Over29c143$41 inWon+$101.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8200…29f3backed Over29c136$39 inWon+$96.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa21…72d4backed Over29c130$38 inWon+$92.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda4f…77e9backed Under53c119.6$64 inLost-$63.984353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f2…8c44backed Over29c117$34 inWon+$83.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04de…7729backed Over29c111$32 inWon+$78.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under47c92.08$44 inLost-$43.544,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over55c84.64$47 inWon+$38.0951438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x026c…8d76backed Under47c53.46$25 inLost-$256946.4%32 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over54c51.2$27 inWon+$23.752,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over56c50.79$29 inWon+$22.293,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over53c40.97$22 inWon+$19.255,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under47c32.38$15 inLost-$15.211,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over54c19.68$11 inWon+$9.052,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.