NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b6ba373a450b181dcba6a84fa379a311c6530d13799fa9259509fb19126d76f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,463 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 11c | 1,606$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 20c | 1,227$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.55 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 18c | 986.63$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.47 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 4c | 498.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 328.23$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 42c | 319.55$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.89 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 18c | 318.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 6c | 181.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 39c | 172.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 65c | 150.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 45c | 143.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 59c | 112.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Under | 11c | 108.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 63c | 71.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 67c | 64.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 33c | 64.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 39c | 63.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Under | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…b176backed Under | 29c | 38.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6242…c0d1backed Over | 56c | 35.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc6…095fbacked Under | 37c | 32.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Under | 42c | 29.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 60c | 21.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 619 | 39.6%245 W · 374 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. SpursNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.