NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40e72307c4732ca36cfa38a043ad1a22aa862ef39293b37ade1f898868b0a5b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,274 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Over | 57c | 6,251$3,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,687.96 | 265 | 44.9%119 W · 146 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 5,941$3,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,854.74 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under | 43c | 5,233$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.02 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 52c | 2,971$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.08 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 48c | 2,961$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.28 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,812$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Under | 47c | 1,377$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647 | 213 | 55.9%119 W · 94 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 46c | 911.39$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 808.74$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.11 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 55c | 647.05$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.48 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 48c | 520.42$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.8 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 503.25$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.04 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 52c | 346.21$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.18 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 47c | 346$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.62 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…280cbacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 60c | 158.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…c229backed Under | 47c | 151$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Under | 48c | 148.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 43c | 139.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 123.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 46c | 119.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 114$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…9153backed Under | 45c | 109.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 48c | 102.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…fa95backed Under | 48c | 100.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Under | 47c | 89.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…8249backed Under | 51c | 79.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 47c | 75.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Under | 47c | 75.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 61c | 64.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 47c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Under | 50c | 48.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Under | 48c | 48.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 378 | 45%170 W · 208 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Under | 49c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Over | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 161 | 41.6%67 W · 94 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed Under | 40c | 44.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 43.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Under | 47c | 42.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 50%135 W · 135 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Under | 47c | 42.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 49c | 41.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 48c | 37.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…79e8backed Under | 44c | 32.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 58c | 30.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x277c…e529backed Under | 43c | 26.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Over | 51c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. SpursNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.