NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc30d62feb6f27a5f3900be0993118c0c565f00d9d3dbb44413c9287abfffd60e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,729 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Over | 52c | 2,627$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.84 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 52c | 2,185$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.52 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,530$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 1,236$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.84 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 48c | 872$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.2 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 48c | 827$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.3 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…42a7backed Under | 44c | 716$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…968bbacked Over | 56c | 716$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 57c | 676.72$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.67 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 54c | 671$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.66 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Under | 48c | 417.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 48c | 333.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 46c | 310$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Under | 48c | 270$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 198 | 40.9%81 W · 117 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 46c | 155$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 46c | 154.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 55c | 136.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 54c | 136.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f4…83a0backed Under | 51c | 134.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 49c | 118.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…fd8fbacked Under | 48c | 91.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 90.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…fa95backed Under | 48c | 78.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 45c | 70.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…1207backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Under | 46c | 50.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked Over | 53c | 44.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…bf37backed Over | 52c | 43.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…8d76backed Under | 48c | 37.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 56c | 36.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…37d5backed Over | 53c | 28.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 55c | 27.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 405 | 48.6%197 W · 208 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Over | 53c | 26.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 47c | 25.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. SpursNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.