NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c87596d248a3991a5496b4abb441fb539b72977e930aa5e3b2359d7db8aa6d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,738 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Under | 51c | 19,743$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 365 | 49.6%181 W · 184 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 49c | 5,512$2,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,811.2 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 4,147$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,109.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 51c | 3,917$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.92 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 52c | 2,358$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.09 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Under | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 51c | 1,106$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.62 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 47c | 1,066$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.91 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 51c | 925.86$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.82 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Over | 52c | 870$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.88 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 54c | 846$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.84 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 55c | 622.01$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.53 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Under | 51c | 588.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 53c | 560.94$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.64 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 430.69$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.31 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 51c | 391.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.73 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 361$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.72 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Over | 52c | 314.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 48c | 227.7$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…829bbacked Under | 49c | 208.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 44c | 194.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 161.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 146$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 51c | 127.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 104.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…a3abbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…5463backed Under | 51c | 98.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Over | 52c | 96.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 79.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 51c | 68.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…2987backed Under | 47c | 52.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x474f…8ec6backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 55c | 46.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 47c | 39.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 50c | 38.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 46c | 36.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 50c | 31.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 30.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481e…de2bbacked Under | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Over | 52c | 21.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a48…1688backed Under | 51c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Under | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 201 | 40.3%81 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked Over | 53c | 20.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. SpursNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.