TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,738 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Under51c19,743$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over49c5,512$2,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,811.21,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c4,147$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.499,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over51c3,917$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,916.921,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4401,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over52c2,358$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.0924053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Under48c1,458$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70018842.6%80 W · 108 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over51c1,106$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.624,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Under47c1,066$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.9123348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4904,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over51c925.86$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.8258449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Over52c870$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.8814245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over54c846$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.841,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over55c622.01$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.5319958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Under51c588.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013547.4%64 W · 71 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over53c560.94$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.6420638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over49c430.69$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.313,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under51c391.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7354549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over48c361$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.722,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed Over52c314.99$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.220051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1563,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Under48c227.7$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0737842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c10…829bbacked Under49c208.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5310270.6%72 W · 30 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+11.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under44c194.91$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.762,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under46c161.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.524,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over48c146$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.922,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over51c127.45$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4534854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under48c104.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…a3abbacked Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c88…5463backed Under51c98.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505151%26 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd590…5eeebacked Over52c96.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.341040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over58c79.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.348,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over51c68.69$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9895047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.259650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4747…2987backed Under47c52.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x474f…8ec6backed Over53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.54463.6%28 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under51c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4541052%213 W · 197 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Over53c48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5617553.7%94 W · 81 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over55c46.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.181,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under47c39.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4160945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under50c38.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921843.6%95 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over48c38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.765,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under46c36.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.933,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under50c31.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.911,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over49c30.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.252,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481e…de2bbacked Under51c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa991…f266backed Over52c21.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.188950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a48…1688backed Under51c21.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Under50c20.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.120140.3%81 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0707…310abacked Over53c20.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.486746.3%31 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.