Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Indoors Basel: Valentin Royer vs Denis Shapovalov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13fdf7d746e7bb23b353048e9263388cb66c7459c6353b07d37e96815e4be513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Royer, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Shapovalov | 60c | 30,000$18,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,000 | 374 | 50%187 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Royer | 40c | 25,749$10,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,299.44 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Royer | 0c | 11,040$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Royer | 21c | 4,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 647 | 55.2%357 W · 290 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shapovalov | 77c | 3,989$3,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.94 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Royer | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Royer | 43c | 1,589$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.81 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royer | 40c | 1,575$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d5…e6d2backed Shapovalov | 60c | 1,478$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe3…5a21backed Royer | 41c | 1,477$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Royer | 38c | 1,147$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.81 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Royer | 40c | 1,138$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.3 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Shapovalov | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Royer | 40c | 895.17$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.4 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…dab3backed Shapovalov | 61c | 848.28$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Royer | 41c | 758.97$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.9 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Shapovalov | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Shapovalov | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shapovalov | 33c | 688.43$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.84 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Royer | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shapovalov | 49c | 598.99$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.51 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…bc47backed Royer | 40c | 450$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Shapovalov | 61c | 400$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.71 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Royer | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royer | 40c | 335.62$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Shapovalov | 59c | 278.9$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…8c93backed Royer | 71c | 267.61$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Shapovalov | 59c | 265.58$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…42fabacked Shapovalov | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Shapovalov | 46c | 240$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Royer | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Royer | 28c | 195.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Shapovalov | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Shapovalov | 59c | 169.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20b…ba2fbacked Royer | 71c | 167.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Shapovalov | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Royer | 56c | 162.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…da8fbacked Shapovalov | 60c | 153$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb36…79b2backed Royer | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…284abacked Shapovalov | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…c684backed Shapovalov | 60c | 147$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Shapovalov | 79c | 145.79$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Royer | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Royer | 39c | 134.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Shapovalov | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Shapovalov | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Shapovalov | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 645 | 37.2%240 W · 405 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Royer | 40c | 117.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Royer | 45c | 116$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Royer | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3821…8e87backed Royer | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Royer | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf24…0039backed Shapovalov | 61c | 89.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Royer | 27c | 85.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Royer | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Royer | 39c | 77.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…920cbacked Shapovalov | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Shapovalov | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Shapovalov | 39c | 55.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Shapovalov | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Shapovalov | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Royer | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Shapovalov | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…fc42backed Royer | 41c | 40.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Shapovalov | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…f259backed Shapovalov | 61c | 32.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Shapovalov | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…7b1fbacked Shapovalov | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…7150backed Shapovalov | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 165 | 64.8%107 W · 58 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Shapovalov | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…ca98backed Shapovalov | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…bb41backed Shapovalov | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…cc93backed Shapovalov | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92fb…18a3backed Shapovalov | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…3f9dbacked Royer | 47c | 31.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Royer | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Shapovalov | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…05f5backed Shapovalov | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…b046backed Shapovalov | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Shapovalov | 60c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.