Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Shintaro Imai vs Naoki Nakagawa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14b644b7993c145c52271136b91470f49cf29c53dcb66ceb83a01fc61a600010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Naoki Nakagawaof Shintaro Imai, Naoki Nakagawa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Shintaro Imai | 18c | 2,004$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.06 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Shintaro Imai | 34c | 990.41$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.67 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Shintaro Imai | 56c | 751.05$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 1,229 | 53.1%653 W · 576 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Shintaro Imai | 29c | 689.44$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 53c | 631.8$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.17 | 625 | 57.6%360 W · 265 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Naoki Nakagawa | 44c | 599.99$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Naoki Nakagawa | 45c | 373.31$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.32 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shintaro Imai | 47c | 353.57$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Naoki Nakagawa | 46c | 345.7$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.02 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Shintaro Imai | 46c | 296.57$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 1,132 | 50.3%569 W · 563 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 57c | 290.74$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Shintaro Imai | 52c | 269.81$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Naoki Nakagawa | 49c | 225.41$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 1,053 | 40.9%431 W · 622 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Naoki Nakagawa | 45c | 220.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.45 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 57c | 208.09$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Shintaro Imai | 18c | 198.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…7475backed Naoki Nakagawa | 61c | 194.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Shintaro Imai | 43c | 185.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…51b3backed Shintaro Imai | 52c | 185.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 353 | 60.9%215 W · 138 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…19e2backed Naoki Nakagawa | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +11.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 65c | 142$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 582 | 48.3%281 W · 301 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Shintaro Imai | 52c | 112.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4419…fcf4backed Shintaro Imai | 58c | 102$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 189 | 59.8%113 W · 76 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Shintaro Imai | 47c | 94.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Shintaro Imai | 56c | 89.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 370 | 65.1%241 W · 129 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Shintaro Imai | 55c | 86.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…4a39backed Naoki Nakagawa | 42c | 86.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Shintaro Imai | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Naoki Nakagawa | 63c | 78.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shintaro Imai | 43c | 76.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Shintaro Imai | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Shintaro Imai | 48c | 73.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Shintaro Imai | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Naoki Nakagawa | 48c | 70.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 180 | 38.3%69 W · 111 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Naoki Nakagawa | 53c | 64.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Naoki Nakagawa | 78c | 64.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 377 | 76.1%287 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 53c | 60.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 1,179 | 52.8%623 W · 556 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Shintaro Imai | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Naoki Nakagawa | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…e83ebacked Shintaro Imai | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Naoki Nakagawa | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…8ebebacked Shintaro Imai | 55c | 49.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Naoki Nakagawa | 53c | 47.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fa…53cdbacked Shintaro Imai | 53c | 44.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Shintaro Imai | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Shintaro Imai | 35c | 39.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef1…e893backed Naoki Nakagawa | 48c | 38.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Shintaro Imai | 53c | 35.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6522…3a5abacked Shintaro Imai | 55c | 32.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Shintaro Imai | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 54.2%562 W · 474 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 58c | 31.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Naoki Nakagawa | 69c | 31.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Naoki Nakagawa | 70c | 31.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 62c | 30.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Naoki Nakagawa | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 336 | 56.8%191 W · 145 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e43…ea02backed Naoki Nakagawa | 44c | 28.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…b299backed Naoki Nakagawa | 47c | 23.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Shintaro Imai | 52c | 23.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Shintaro Imai | 56c | 21.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,887 | 39.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.