TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof MOUZ, Team Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$275,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$319,935

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,802 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7d11…99cabacked Team Lynx0c18,801$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.84734%16 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed MOUZ78c17,281$13,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,857.273666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Lynx25c10,736$2,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.91,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed MOUZ70c10,094$7,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,028.2711753%62 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Team Lynx32c9,862$3,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,203.6413020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Lynx31c9,846$3,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,086.3441056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Lynx32c9,582$3,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,025.0234544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Lynx30c8,509$2,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,534.1954556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8041…05d6backed MOUZ58c7,171$4,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,045.313053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked MOUZ68c6,709$4,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,146.8917444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb66a…800ebacked Team Lynx49c5,994$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,936.082850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed MOUZ74c4,797$3,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.697152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed MOUZ75c4,155$3,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.765761.4%35 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Lynx31c3,327$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.451,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Lynx26c3,239$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.6981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Team Lynx53c2,884$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,526.732148.3%155 W · 166 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed MOUZ71c2,836$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.420145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Lynx41c2,785$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.1847046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed MOUZ78c2,610$2,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.6547650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked MOUZ67c2,351$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.395342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Lynx54c2,147$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.1585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ63c2,059$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.1577941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed MOUZ59c1,988$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.3196557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked MOUZ47c1,985$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.11944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Lynx50c1,758$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.0245061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed MOUZ70c1,750$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.6356852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8681…ef99backed Team Lynx23c1,729$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.916746.3%31 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked MOUZ69c1,709$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.7412654.8%69 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Lynx17c1,700$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.8536759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed MOUZ77c1,631$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.512857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Lynx61c1,573$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.1862650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Lynx42c1,565$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.5499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Lynx34c1,554$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked MOUZ60c1,548$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.6267043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Lynx17c1,503$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.8568649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team Lynx45c1,335$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.3333041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked MOUZ66c1,314$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.2396645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Lynx9c1,254$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10771342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed MOUZ67c1,234$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.18042.5%34 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Lynx40c1,202$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.4940051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ68c1,199$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.131,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Team Lynx34c1,166$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.625147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Lynx24c1,148$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.4623653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Lynx54c1,118$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.2342145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Lynx23c1,099$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.491,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Team Lynx25c1,046$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.521957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+51.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ70c1,018$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.342,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed MOUZ67c971.14$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.4850769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed MOUZ74c901.92$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.537745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Lynx18c845.06$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Lynx43c830.48$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.6751751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc38…d22bbacked MOUZ48c807.33$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.811172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed MOUZ74c796.98$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.2121146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Lynx22c750$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16546240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed MOUZ40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45010937.6%41 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd64d…bcfebacked MOUZ66c749.98$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.991258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed MOUZ60c729.08$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.123342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2148…ae1dbacked MOUZ75c724.96$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed MOUZ61c699.99$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2733540%14 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked MOUZ68c687.59$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.5636654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Lynx23c642.75$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.271,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed MOUZ64c639.8$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.3328549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked Team Lynx39c636.16$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.2119951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Team Lynx20c631.59$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0326956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e1…8d38backed MOUZ57c597.41$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.86165.6%40 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked MOUZ77c576.93$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.69366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed MOUZ70c569.21$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.7633644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed Team Lynx9c552.12$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.264829.2%14 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked Team Lynx26c551.31$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.345824.1%14 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked MOUZ76c544.84$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3633845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Team Lynx37c519.38$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.393237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Team Lynx32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed MOUZ73c499.96$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9925150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa094…3f07backed Team Lynx40c487.93$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.741233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf7…6d62backed MOUZ50c487.26$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.794845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Team Lynx50c479.18$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5916945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Team Lynx42c456.84$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.0714747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd5…8d10backed Team Lynx6c455$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.755127.5%14 W · 37 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Lynx23c452.02$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9629160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Team Lynx44c451.87$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0220043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Team Lynx32c449.63$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8817443.7%76 W · 98 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed MOUZ75c445.22$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.33647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d7f…2b63backed MOUZ53c442.14$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Lynx33c436.66$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2853844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed MOUZ76c433.66$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.088749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ61c422.83$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.6272035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Team Lynx30c422$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0433549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eae…d46dbacked Team Lynx37c419.33$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.884537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed MOUZ58c413.93$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.2821062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed MOUZ47c412$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.3646049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed MOUZ62c400$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15373743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ63c397.12$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.2179959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked MOUZ72c375.64$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9739343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Team Lynx33c364.62$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6936138.2%138 W · 223 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed MOUZ42c357.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.1450053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed MOUZ47c353.39$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.396245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked Team Lynx49c353.03$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.548750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ac…0e0bbacked MOUZ56c351.99$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.32035%7 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4898…a723backed Team Lynx9c340.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.93318.2%6 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-57.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Team Lynx34c334.78$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5129240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.