Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x168f5806bbf84f00e07ec3fee916bec5cb2f39f7803d765940d6e2b88aea190f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $306,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 2c | 48,362$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.57 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 34,510$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.98 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 17,032$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.32 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…1574backed Yes | 5c | 15,061$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 11,608$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.49 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,756$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.75 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a0…175dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,378$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…7ec1backed Yes | 3c | 4,777$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,425$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9717…ddf3backed Yes | 2c | 4,157$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes | 2c | 4,022$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…11b2backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd9…1cefbacked Yes | 1c | 3,845$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…daedbacked Yes | 5c | 3,775$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…34c8backed Yes | 2c | 3,771$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,678$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.93 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 3,616$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 3,400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 3,110$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.6 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…3a32backed Yes | 2c | 3,025$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,598$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…521cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,406$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed Yes | 2c | 2,201$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 7c | 2,140$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 3c | 1,995$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 1,935$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,778$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,522$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…8b64backed Yes | 2c | 1,476$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,440$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,319$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…52abbacked Yes | 2c | 1,206$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,122$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,068$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,030$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 4c | 1,003$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x199c…abb6backed Yes | 4c | 977.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1b…0d3dbacked Yes | 4c | 906.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…3acdbacked Yes | 3c | 801.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…caf3backed Yes | 9c | 786.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…2aeebacked Yes | 5c | 754.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…c018backed Yes | 6c | 721$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…6450backed Yes | 4c | 699.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…b782backed Yes | 4c | 690$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…1713backed Yes | 4c | 626.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 3c | 572.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721e…9b48backed Yes | 3c | 528.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…2735backed Yes | 4c | 500.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…389abacked Yes | 5c | 496.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…cb9cbacked Yes | 2c | 491.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…cbacbacked Yes | 4c | 410.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…7e94backed Yes | 5c | 377.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…7e26backed Yes | 7c | 302.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…1facbacked Yes | 5c | 255.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 7c | 220.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…7422backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.