TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dignitasof Dignitas, Shopify Rebellion
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$249,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,862 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9fe1…4d7fbacked Dignitas51c31,021$15,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,126.512161.2%74 W · 47 L+10.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Shopify Rebellion45c20,496$9,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,218.1111750.4%59 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed Dignitas58c13,679$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,678.961540%6 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Shopify Rebellion57c10,000$5,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,671.3126246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Shopify Rebellion11c9,516$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.2325038%95 W · 155 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Shopify Rebellion46c7,999$3,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,696.61,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed Shopify Rebellion20c7,688$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50027637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Dignitas49c7,027$3,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,598.421,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Shopify Rebellion43c6,156$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,646.412,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16c…d7f4backed Shopify Rebellion41c5,780$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,361.145848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Shopify Rebellion40c4,519$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.7913355.6%74 W · 59 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Shopify Rebellion56c4,301$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,419.415545.8%71 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Dignitas55c3,924$2,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.1825952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Dignitas53c3,750$1,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.51,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Dignitas45c3,184$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.891,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Shopify Rebellion53c3,175$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.9682352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Dignitas64c3,096$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.0549549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0c…f837backed Shopify Rebellion45c2,990$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.5321857.8%126 W · 92 L+18.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Shopify Rebellion5c2,772$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.782326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Shopify Rebellion46c2,688$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.541,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Shopify Rebellion57c2,638$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.541,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Dignitas50c2,502$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.0485652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a8…2587backed Shopify Rebellion57c2,269$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2901729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Dignitas53c1,608$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.9263161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc454…07e4backed Shopify Rebellion3c1,439$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+83.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Dignitas44c1,132$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.818165.4%53 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Shopify Rebellion45c1,109$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.621,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Dignitas69c1,000$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.31,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Dignitas43c1,000$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57111060%66 W · 44 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Dignitas48c967$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.7353640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Dignitas43c955.39$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.572,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Dignitas44c914.59$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.172,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Dignitas56c895.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.3436943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Shopify Rebellion4c829.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.657869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc983…ebf0backed Dignitas78c800.84$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.613455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e86…2db2backed Shopify Rebellion47c748.15$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.2224629.7%73 W · 173 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Dignitas60c696.52$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.6121840.4%88 W · 130 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Dignitas46c689.33$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.3326453.8%142 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Dignitas47c638.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.346552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d1…3d4cbacked Shopify Rebellion4c625$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530421.4%65 W · 239 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Shopify Rebellion57c600$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34242148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Shopify Rebellion50c595.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017544%77 W · 98 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0002…103ebacked Shopify Rebellion57c523.99$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.679743.3%42 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Shopify Rebellion35c500$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1731,00949.2%496 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Shopify Rebellion56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2804837.5%18 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Dignitas53c463.97$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.0795847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Shopify Rebellion34c461.01$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.6334742.1%146 W · 201 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Shopify Rebellion34c431.48$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2250643.1%218 W · 288 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf828…00a5backed Shopify Rebellion46c364.57$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1676144.3%27 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Dignitas56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1450051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Dignitas43c334.51$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.6711950.4%60 W · 59 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Shopify Rebellion41c326.53$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.911,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1349…dc1fbacked Shopify Rebellion47c320.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011750.4%59 W · 58 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Dignitas43c313.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.971,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Dignitas70c303.5$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0515854.4%86 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Dignitas58c276.34$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4141644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a70…18f0backed Dignitas62c269$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.217542.3%74 W · 101 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Shopify Rebellion57c258.06$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0957947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Dignitas43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5638835.3%137 W · 251 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked Dignitas43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.563542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4425…12efbacked Dignitas53c230$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.116540.6%67 W · 98 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Shopify Rebellion35c225.35$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5231439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Dignitas42c216.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.8619731%61 W · 136 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Dignitas40c216.6$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.961,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Shopify Rebellion60c210$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12610552.4%55 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Dignitas59c205.49$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9986758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Shopify Rebellion49c204.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018839.9%75 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Dignitas55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9027535.3%97 W · 178 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Dignitas46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10819053.2%101 W · 89 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked Dignitas50c196.77$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1325639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed Shopify Rebellion52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10074344%327 W · 416 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Dignitas43c180$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.639851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Shopify Rebellion35c180$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.470443.9%309 W · 395 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Shopify Rebellion53c152.47$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1414145.4%64 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3692…e8edbacked Shopify Rebellion20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca4a…338abacked Dignitas55c147.13$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7416451.2%84 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ee…26babacked Dignitas42c146.48$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.57553.3%40 W · 35 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Dignitas52c144.23$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.231,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b1…9ec0backed Dignitas58c130.79$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.432962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7791…5f8abacked Shopify Rebellion13c129.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Dignitas50c121.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.379254.3%50 W · 42 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Dignitas70c120$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3650569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Dignitas51c117.94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.941,04846.1%483 W · 565 L-43.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Shopify Rebellion28c113.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.251,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed Dignitas53c113.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2150845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Dignitas55c111.83$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3133552.8%177 W · 158 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Dignitas44c109$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0443148%207 W · 224 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Dignitas58c106.24$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.11,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Shopify Rebellion55c103.49$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9222349.3%110 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8688…a520backed Dignitas44c101.73$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9716251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5c…cbbabacked Shopify Rebellion18c101.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Shopify Rebellion45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4533736.5%123 W · 214 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Dignitas46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5466445.6%303 W · 361 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a16…de20backed Dignitas47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5327455.8%153 W · 121 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17c9…d67abacked Shopify Rebellion22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221650%8 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+134.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Shopify Rebellion58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x337e…9b4ebacked Dignitas71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2932554.8%178 W · 147 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Shopify Rebellion55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5533251.5%171 W · 161 L+33.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6976…3185backed Shopify Rebellion47c93.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.826440.6%26 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x558c…ca77backed Dignitas60c91.95$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.952254.5%12 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.