MLB · resolved market
Yankees vs. Guardians - Game 3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16cf9e4c1d794ee29fb519ef3d42f601d17897ad1628fe4e3be7765fb5dbccee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Guardians, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf22c…9050backed Yankees | 52c | 17,834$9,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,220.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Guardians | 51c | 10,278$5,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,033.4 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Yankees | 53c | 9,351$4,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,913.58 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Guardians | 49c | 8,150$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,149.97 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Guardians | 45c | 6,397$2,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,530.28 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Guardians | 46c | 4,431$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…c2f8backed Yankees | 51c | 3,068$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.98 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yankees | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…4e6cbacked Yankees | 52c | 2,706$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Guardians | 14c | 2,019$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Guardians | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…d51abacked Yankees | 52c | 1,350$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…c940backed Yankees | 47c | 1,296$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Guardians | 60c | 1,214$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.36 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yankees | 63c | 1,197$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.86 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Guardians | 51c | 1,037$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…3838backed Yankees | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Guardians | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Guardians | 50c | 968$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Guardians | 48c | 894.34$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.21 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Guardians | 50c | 890.51$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Guardians | 50c | 876.71$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.36 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Guardians | 48c | 750$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Yankees | 42c | 723.93$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Guardians | 51c | 712.8$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yankees | 53c | 660.38$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…314bbacked Yankees | 54c | 644.06$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ef…974cbacked Yankees | 52c | 578.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Yankees | 54c | 548.54$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Guardians | 16c | 543.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.29 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yankees | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Yankees | 52c | 426.92$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Guardians | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…d3d2backed Yankees | 68c | 369.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed Guardians | 42c | 339.63$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 54c | 300$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Guardians | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Guardians | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…d47abacked Yankees | 79c | 247.61$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Guardians | 52c | 241$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Guardians | 54c | 241$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Guardians | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Guardians | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…2193backed Guardians | 50c | 194.21$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…c5b2backed Guardians | 28c | 170$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…16fbbacked Guardians | 48c | 149.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x333a…6376backed Guardians | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0280…f8b6backed Guardians | 49c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d4…2b3cbacked Yankees | 51c | 101$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Guardians | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e2ebbacked Yankees | 52c | 96.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…2eb4backed Yankees | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Yankees | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Yankees | 51c | 60.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Yankees | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Yankees | 62c | 54.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…66e6backed Yankees | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yankees | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…6dbebacked Yankees | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Guardians | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…243fbacked Guardians | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…5603backed Guardians | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2e…cc92backed Yankees | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ba…f903backed Yankees | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…c842backed Yankees | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…e009backed Yankees | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yankees | 51c | 25.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Guardians | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Guardians | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.