Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16ec25b1ad99d4af867f5f0f641b668f24c270c0ffcbfad38184a252087e156c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 4,624$3,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,698.94 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,314$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.56 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,083$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 14c | 999.56$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.51 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 562.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 51c | 523.77$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.46 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 4c | 398.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.53 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 296.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.16 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 286.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 272.88$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.45 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 7c | 193.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 65c | 170.15$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 166.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 149$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 20c | 149$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 68c | 136.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 134.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 121.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 53c | 120.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 115.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 20c | 112.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 15c | 106.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 104.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…c01fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 13c | 99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…a042backed Yes | 73c | 98.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 95.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 94.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 91.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 16c | 89.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 87.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 32c | 85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 29c | 81.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 33c | 79.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 65c | 71.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 25c | 68.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 63c | 68.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 35c | 66.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 73c | 61.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 35c | 59.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 56.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 54.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 62c | 53.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 21c | 52.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 50.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 29c | 50.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed No | 78c | 49.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 41c | 48.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 37c | 48.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 41.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed No | 73c | 39.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 73c | 37.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 78c | 34.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 39c | 33.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 56c | 28.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…e6d9backed No | 66c | 28.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 62c | 24.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 22.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 21.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 76c | 16.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 73c | 15.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 38°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 39°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.